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Nottingham Forest vs Luton

The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire21 October 2023 at 15:00
Referee: S. Barrott

Match Events

Nottingham Forest
Luton
Kick Off
Half Time
C. Wood

assist: A. Elanga

48′
55′
R. BurkeI. Kaboré
Ibrahim Sangaré60′
72′
T. ChongA. Townsend
72′
P. MpanzuR. Barkley
72′
J. BrownE. Adebayo
C. Wood

assist: A. Elanga

76′
I. SangaréC. Kouyaté
78′
W. BolyJ. Worrall
78′
N. DomínguezR. Yates
78′
81′
C. MorrisC. Woodrow
Morgan Gibbs-White82′
83′
C. Ogbene
A. ElangaN. Williams
88′
S. AurierO. Aina
88′
Murillo90+8′
90+2′
E. Adebayo

assist: T. Lockyer

Full Time

Match Statistics

8Shots on Goal4
9Shots off Goal5
19Total Shots13
2Blocked Shots4
17Shots insidebox9
2Shots outsidebox4
12Fouls11
4Corner Kicks2
2Offsides0
57%Ball Possession43%
3Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Goalkeeper Saves6
494Total passes361
378Passes accurate251
77%Passes %70%
2.97expected_goals1.71

Lineups

Squad Ratings

The overall squad rating for Nottingham Forest is 6.87, compared to 6.87 for Luton. This metric is derived from each player's average match rating across all league appearances this season — anything above 7.00 is considered strong, while below 6.50 signals inconsistency. Nottingham Forest's highest-rated starter is Murillo (7.02), while Luton's best-rated player is A. Doughty (8.00).

Attacking Output

The starting XI of Nottingham Forest have contributed 20 goals and 7 assists this season, led by M. Gibbs-White (13G). Luton's starters account for 1 goals and 0 assists, spearheaded by T. Mengi (1G). Goals reflect clinical finishing and chance creation, while assists highlight the ability to unlock defences through through-balls, crosses, and set pieces.

Defensive Solidity

Nottingham Forest deploy 4 defenders rated 7.02 on average, against Luton's 4-man backline averaging 7.40. Higher defensive ratings suggest better positional awareness, fewer individual errors, and a greater likelihood of keeping clean sheets. The rating accounts for tackles won, interceptions, aerial duels, and blocks throughout the season.

Midfield Control

Nottingham Forest field 3 midfielders averaging 6.90, versus Luton's 4 rated 6.52. Midfield ratings reflect passing accuracy, interceptions, key passes, and overall control of possession — the team that dominates midfield typically dictates the tempo and territory of the match.

Forward Threat

Nottingham Forest start 3 forward(s) averaging 6.78, compared to 2 for Luton averaging 6.49. Forward ratings capture shot accuracy, movement off the ball, dribbling success, and involvement in build-up play — they indicate who carries the greater goal threat on the day.

Passing & Build-Up

Passing accuracy averages 81% for Nottingham Forest and 66% for Luton. Higher passing accuracy generally indicates a possession-based style with patient build-up through the thirds, while lower figures may suggest a more direct, counter-attacking approach with long balls and quick transitions.

Discipline

Nottingham Forest's starters have collected 14 yellow cards this season, compared to 5 for Luton. Yellow cards reflect how aggressively a team presses and tackles — a high count may indicate a physical, high-pressing style but also risks suspensions and late free-kicks in dangerous areas.

Age & Experience

The average age of Nottingham Forest's starting XI is 28.5 (youngest: Murillo (23), oldest: W. Boly (34)), while Luton average 26.6 (youngest: T. Mengi (23), oldest: M. Nakamba (31)). Younger squads typically offer pace, energy, and pressing intensity, while experienced lineups bring composure, game management, and the ability to handle high-pressure moments.

Squad Depth

Nottingham Forest's starters average 21 league appearances each, versus 9 for Luton. High appearance counts indicate an established, well-drilled unit that the manager trusts week in and week out. Lower figures may suggest rotation, injuries, or emerging players still earning their place in the team.

Nottingham Forest4-3-34-4-2Luton
GKDEFMIDFWD
1Turner24Aurier30Boly40Murillo15Toffolo16Domíngu.5Mangala6Sangaré10Gibbs-W.11Wood21Elanga24Kaminski16Burke4Lockyer15Mengi45Doughty7Ogbene13Nakamba17Mpanzu14Chong19Brown9Morris

Substitutes

Coach: S. Cooper

Substitutes

Coach: R. Edwards

Nottingham ForestPosition StrengthLuton
6.87
Avg Rating
6.87
7.02Defender (4 v 4)7.40
1G 0A1G 0A
6.90Midfielder (3 v 4)6.52
3G 3A0G 0A
6.78Forward (3 v 2)6.49
16G 4A0G 0A
Nottingham Forest4-3-3
1GoalkeeperM. Turner
24DefenderS. Aurier
30DefenderW. Boly
40DefenderMurillo7.01G
15DefenderH. Toffolo
16MidfielderN. Domínguez6.81G1A
5MidfielderO. Mangala
6MidfielderI. Sangaré7.02G2A
10ForwardM. Gibbs-White6.913G4A
11ForwardC. Wood6.73G
21ForwardA. Elanga
Luton4-4-2
24GoalkeeperT. Kaminski
16DefenderR. Burke
4DefenderT. Lockyer
15DefenderT. Mengi6.81G
45DefenderA. Doughty8.0
7MidfielderC. Ogbene
13MidfielderM. Nakamba6.8
17MidfielderP. Mpanzu
14MidfielderT. Chong6.2
19ForwardJ. Brown6.5
9ForwardC. Morris

Match Summary

Nottingham Forest and Luton drew 2:2. The match was played in Premier League 2023. Goals were scored by C. Wood 48′, C. Wood 76′, C. Ogbene 83′, E. Adebayo 90′. 3 yellow cards were shown. Nottingham Forest had 57% possession while Luton held 43%. Nottingham Forest had 19 shots (8 on target) compared to 13 (4 on target) for Luton. Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 2.97 — Luton 1.71. Nottingham Forest made 5 substitutions, Luton made 5.

Rivalry since 2019

Nottingham Forest vs Luton Head to Head Results

8 stretnutí
Nottingham Forest
3
wins
Drawn
3
Luton
2
wins
Total goals
15 · 1.9/match
Both scored
4/8 · 50%
Over 2.5
2/8 · 25%

Recent Form

Nottingham Forest

DLWWWW

Luton

WWWDWW

Match Prediction

Nottingham Forest

45%

Home win

 

45%

Draw

Luton

10%

Away win

Model advice

Combo Double chance : Nottingham Forest or draw and -3.5 goals

60%Form40%
43%Attack57%
60%Defence40%
38%Head-to-head62%

Injuries & Suspensions

Nottingham Forest

  • DoubtfulDanilo
  • DoubtfulFelipe
  • DoubtfulG. Montiel
  • DoubtfulT. Awoniyi
  • DoubtfulN. Tavares

Luton

  • DoubtfulM. Andersen
  • DoubtfulA. Bell
  • DoubtfulJ. Clark
  • DoubtfulA. S. Lokonga
  • DoubtfulD. Potts

Betting Odds & Historical Data

Opening pre-match odds recorded for this fixture at the time it was played. These are historical figures for analytical reference only and do not reflect any current market.

Historical data only — not for betting

This data is sourced from football-data.co.uk and covers historical match results and pre-match odds. These figures do not represent current or live odds and cannot be used for placing bets. Betting is not possible on this website. Provided for analytical and research purposes only.

Head-to-Head Record

Even record

Historical results between these two teams — showing who has dominated this fixture and whether the current odds reflect that pattern.

Nottingham Forest0wins
2draws2 meetings
Luton0wins

Goals in This Fixture

How many goals these two teams typically produce when they meet, based on their historical encounters.

3

Average goals per game

50%

Games with 3+ goals

100%

Both teams scored

Potential Betting Value Detected

Historical win rate (0%) differs significantly from the market-implied probability (57%) — the odds may underestimate Luton.

Market Summary

Margin: 4.6%

Implied win probabilities calculated from pre-match odds across multiple sources. A higher percentage means the market considered that outcome more likely. Compare these against your own assessment to spot potential value.

Implied Probability

Home 60.1%Draw 26.2%Away 18.3%

Odds Range

1X2
Min1.623.755.43
Max1.703.895.50
Over 2.5: 48.1%Under 2.5: 54.9%
Market favourite:Nottingham Forest · Moderate favourite

Market Consensus

Professional markets (sharp bookmakers) reflect sharp money and are harder to beat. Public markets are softer. When the two disagree significantly (highlighted in amber), it may indicate a mispriced line worth investigating.

1X2
Professional market57.1%25.0%17.9%
Public market57.2%25.5%17.4%

Nottingham Forest vs Luton — margin-removed probabilities

Result vs. Market

Draw
Result vs. Market: Nottingham Forest (60%)

Result differed from market prediction

Match Statistics

Actual in-game statistics recorded for this match. Shots on target is a strong indicator of attacking pressure and correlates well with expected goals.

Nottingham ForestHalf-time:00Luton
19Shots13
8Shots on target4

Head-to-Head History

Historical results between these two teams. Bold odds show which outcome was backed by the market — compare against the actual result to assess predictability of this fixture over time.

DateHomeScoreAwayAvg. odds
16/03/24Luton1–1Nottingham Forest2.79/3.63/2.42
21/10/23Nottingham Forest2–2Luton1.66/3.81/5.48

Home Record / Away Record

Aggregated season statistics from all available historical data. Use these to assess each team's overall form, scoring frequency, and tendency for high-scoring matches.

Home Record: Nottingham Forest

W 98D 86L 121
Over 2.548
Goals scored377

Away Record: Luton

W 6D 8L 24
Over 2.571
Goals scored52

Data: football-data.co.uk

Statistics are for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

API data: 11 May 2026