11 March 2023 at 18:00
Betting Odds & Historical Data
Opening pre-match odds recorded for this fixture at the time it was played. These are historical figures for analytical reference only and do not reflect any current market.
Historical data only — not for betting
This data is sourced from football-data.co.uk and covers historical match results and pre-match odds. These figures do not represent current or live odds and cannot be used for placing bets. Betting is not possible on this website. Provided for analytical and research purposes only.
Head-to-Head Record
Even recordHistorical results between these two teams — showing who has dominated this fixture and whether the current odds reflect that pattern.
Goals in This Fixture
How many goals these two teams typically produce when they meet, based on their historical encounters.
3.3
Average goals per game
70%
Games with 3+ goals
80%
Both teams scored
Potential Betting Value Detected
Historical win rate (20%) differs significantly from the market-implied probability (46%) — the odds may underestimate Arouca.
Market Summary
Margin: 5.3%Implied win probabilities calculated from pre-match odds across multiple sources. A higher percentage means the market considered that outcome more likely. Compare these against your own assessment to spot potential value.
Implied Probability
Odds Range
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.70 |
| Max | 2.12 | 3.40 | 4.06 |
Market Consensus
Professional markets (sharp bookmakers) reflect sharp money and are harder to beat. Public markets are softer. When the two disagree significantly (highlighted in amber), it may indicate a mispriced line worth investigating.
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Professional market | 45.9% | 30.2% | 23.9% |
| Public market | 47.1% | 27.7% | 25.1% |
| Δ | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
Guimaraes vs Arouca — margin-removed probabilities
Result vs. Market
Result differed from market prediction
Match Statistics
Actual in-game statistics recorded for this match. Shots on target is a strong indicator of attacking pressure and correlates well with expected goals.
Head-to-Head History
Historical results between these two teams. Bold odds show which outcome was backed by the market — compare against the actual result to assess predictability of this fixture over time.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Avg. odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2625/26 | Arouca | 3–2 | Guimaraes | 2.75/3.30/2.40 |
| 30/08/2525/26 | Guimaraes | 1–1 | Arouca | 1.79/3.59/4.42 |
| 18/01/2524/25 | Guimaraes | 2–2 | Arouca | 1.57/3.93/5.92 |
| 12/08/2424/25 | Arouca | 0–1 | Guimaraes | 2.85/3.40/2.40 |
| 18/05/2423/24 | Arouca | 1–3 | Guimaraes | 2.80/3.47/2.40 |
| 15/01/2423/24 | Guimaraes | 2–1 | Arouca | 1.88/3.50/4.08 |
| 11/03/2322/23 | Guimaraes | 0–2 | Arouca | 2.07/3.24/3.84 |
| 18/09/2222/23 | Arouca | 2–2 | Guimaraes | 3.03/3.21/2.41 |
| 19/02/2221/22 | Guimaraes | 1–3 | Arouca | 1.73/3.68/4.88 |
| 18/09/2121/22 | Arouca | 2–2 | Guimaraes | 3.89/3.47/1.94 |
Home Record / Away Record
Aggregated season statistics from all available historical data. Use these to assess each team's overall form, scoring frequency, and tendency for high-scoring matches.
Home Record: Guimaraes
Away Record: Arouca
Data: football-data.co.uk
Match Summary
Arouca defeated Guimaraes 2:0. The match was played in Primeira Liga 2022. Goals were scored by Rafa Mújica 50′, Antony 77′. 6 yellow cards were shown. Guimaraes had 56% possession while Arouca held 44%. Guimaraes had 25 shots (8 on target) compared to 9 (4 on target) for Arouca. Guimaraes made 5 substitutions, Arouca made 4.
Match Events
Key match events between Guimaraes and Arouca — 2 goals and 6 cards recorded during the match.
assist: Quaresma
assist: B. Michel
Match Statistics
Guimaraes had 56% possession against Arouca's 44%. Guimaraes registered 25 shots (8 on target) while Arouca managed 9 (4 on target). Corner kicks: 12–0. Fouls committed: 8–7.
Recent Form
In their last 6 matches, Guimaraes have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats. Arouca show 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from their last 6 outings.
Guimaraes
Arouca
Guimaraes vs Arouca Head to Head Results
Guimaraes and Arouca have met 17 times — Guimaraes won 8, Arouca won 3, with 6 draws. Their rivalry dates back to 2013. Guimaraes leads the head-to-head with 8 victories from 17 meetings. A combined 52 goals have been scored across these fixtures, averaging 3.06 per match (29 for the home side, 23 for the visitors). Both teams scored in 12 matches (71%). Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 games (65%), making it a fixture that tends to produce goals. Arouca are currently unbeaten in the last 3 meetings. The highest-scoring encounter finished 3–2 in 2026.
8
Guimaraes
6
Drawn
3
Arouca
Recent Meetings (17)
API data: 15 Mar 2026