28 December 2023 at 20:15
Betting Odds & Historical Data
Opening pre-match odds recorded for this fixture at the time it was played. These are historical figures for analytical reference only and do not reflect any current market.
Historical data only — not for betting
This data is sourced from football-data.co.uk and covers historical match results and pre-match odds. These figures do not represent current or live odds and cannot be used for placing bets. Betting is not possible on this website. Provided for analytical and research purposes only.
Head-to-Head Record
Even recordHistorical results between these two teams — showing who has dominated this fixture and whether the current odds reflect that pattern.
Goals in This Fixture
How many goals these two teams typically produce when they meet, based on their historical encounters.
2.6
Average goals per game
60%
Games with 3+ goals
60%
Both teams scored
Potential Betting Value Detected
Historical win rate (67%) differs significantly from the market-implied probability (37%) — the odds may underestimate Estrela.
Market Summary
Margin: 6.5%Implied win probabilities calculated from pre-match odds across multiple sources. A higher percentage means the market considered that outcome more likely. Compare these against your own assessment to spot potential value.
Implied Probability
Odds Range
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| Max | 2.63 | 3.38 | 2.80 |
Market Consensus
Professional markets (sharp bookmakers) reflect sharp money and are harder to beat. Public markets are softer. When the two disagree significantly (highlighted in amber), it may indicate a mispriced line worth investigating.
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Professional market | 36.8% | 28.6% | 34.6% |
| Public market | 36.8% | 28.4% | 34.8% |
Estrela vs Arouca — margin-removed probabilities
Result vs. Market
Result differed from market prediction
Match Statistics
Actual in-game statistics recorded for this match. Shots on target is a strong indicator of attacking pressure and correlates well with expected goals.
Head-to-Head History
Historical results between these two teams. Bold odds show which outcome was backed by the market — compare against the actual result to assess predictability of this fixture over time.
Home Record / Away Record
Aggregated season statistics from all available historical data. Use these to assess each team's overall form, scoring frequency, and tendency for high-scoring matches.
Home Record: Estrela
Away Record: Arouca
Data: football-data.co.uk
Match Summary
Arouca defeated Estrela 4:1. The match was played in Primeira Liga 2023. Goals were scored by Kialonda Gaspar 11′, Rafa Mújica 47′, Jason 77′, Javi Montero 80′, A. Bukia 90′. 3 yellow cards were shown, 1 red cards. Estrela had 38% possession while Arouca held 62%. Estrela had 5 shots (1 on target) compared to 19 (8 on target) for Arouca. Expected goals: Estrela 0.94 — Arouca 3.93. Estrela made 5 substitutions, Arouca made 4.
Match Events
Key match events between Estrela and Arouca — 5 goals and 4 cards recorded during the match.
assist: Jean Felipe
assist: Tiago Esgaio
assist: Cristo González
Match Statistics
Estrela had 38% possession against Arouca's 62%. Estrela registered 5 shots (1 on target) while Arouca managed 19 (8 on target). Corner kicks: 3–5. Fouls committed: 6–12.
Recent Form
In their last 6 matches, Estrela have recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats. Arouca show 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from their last 6 outings.
Estrela
Arouca
Estrela vs Arouca Head to Head Results
Estrela and Arouca have met 2 times — Estrela won 1, Arouca won 1, with 0 draws. Their rivalry dates back to 2025. A combined 5 goals have been scored across these fixtures, averaging 2.50 per match (3 for the home side, 2 for the visitors). Both teams scored in 1 matches (50%). Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 games (50%), making it a fixture that tends to produce goals. The highest-scoring encounter finished 3–1 in 2025.
1
Estrela
0
Drawn
1
Arouca
Recent Meetings (2)
API data: 15 Mar 2026