29 April 2024 at 19:15
Betting Odds & Historical Data
Opening pre-match odds recorded for this fixture at the time it was played. These are historical figures for analytical reference only and do not reflect any current market.
Historical data only — not for betting
This data is sourced from football-data.co.uk and covers historical match results and pre-match odds. These figures do not represent current or live odds and cannot be used for placing bets. Betting is not possible on this website. Provided for analytical and research purposes only.
Head-to-Head Record
Farense dominatesHistorical results between these two teams — showing who has dominated this fixture and whether the current odds reflect that pattern.
Goals in This Fixture
How many goals these two teams typically produce when they meet, based on their historical encounters.
1.3
Average goals per game
25%
Games with 3+ goals
0%
Both teams scored
Potential Betting Value Detected
Historical win rate (0%) differs significantly from the market-implied probability (44%) — the odds may underestimate Farense.
Market Summary
Margin: 5.3%Implied win probabilities calculated from pre-match odds across multiple sources. A higher percentage means the market considered that outcome more likely. Compare these against your own assessment to spot potential value.
Implied Probability
Odds Range
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Max | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.53 |
Market Consensus
Professional markets (sharp bookmakers) reflect sharp money and are harder to beat. Public markets are softer. When the two disagree significantly (highlighted in amber), it may indicate a mispriced line worth investigating.
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Professional market | 43.8% | 28.9% | 27.3% |
| Public market | 43.4% | 29.4% | 27.3% |
Estrela vs Farense — margin-removed probabilities
Result vs. Market
Result differed from market prediction
Match Statistics
Actual in-game statistics recorded for this match. Shots on target is a strong indicator of attacking pressure and correlates well with expected goals.
Head-to-Head History
Historical results between these two teams. Bold odds show which outcome was backed by the market — compare against the actual result to assess predictability of this fixture over time.
Home Record / Away Record
Aggregated season statistics from all available historical data. Use these to assess each team's overall form, scoring frequency, and tendency for high-scoring matches.
Home Record: Estrela
Away Record: Farense
Data: football-data.co.uk
Match Summary
Farense defeated Estrela 3:0. The match was played in Primeira Liga 2023. Goals were scored by Bruno Duarte 44′ (pen.), M. Belloumi 47′, Marco Matias 79′. 4 yellow cards were shown. Estrela had 60% possession while Farense held 40%. Estrela had 24 shots (6 on target) compared to 11 (4 on target) for Farense. Expected goals: Estrela 2.56 — Farense 2.47. Estrela made 5 substitutions, Farense made 5. VAR was involved: Penalty confirmed (Mohamed Belloumi 41′).
Match Events
Key match events between Estrela and Farense — 3 goals and 4 cards recorded during the match.
Penalty
assist: Bruno Duarte
Match Statistics
Estrela had 60% possession against Farense's 40%. Estrela registered 24 shots (6 on target) while Farense managed 11 (4 on target). Corner kicks: 11–4. Fouls committed: 9–9.
Recent Form
In their last 6 matches, Estrela have recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats. Farense show 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from their last 6 outings.
Estrela
Farense
API data: 15 Mar 2026