27 May 2023 at 14:15
Betting Odds & Historical Data
Opening pre-match odds recorded for this fixture at the time it was played. These are historical figures for analytical reference only and do not reflect any current market.
Historical data only — not for betting
This data is sourced from football-data.co.uk and covers historical match results and pre-match odds. These figures do not represent current or live odds and cannot be used for placing bets. Betting is not possible on this website. Provided for analytical and research purposes only.
Head-to-Head Record
Lugo dominatesHistorical results between these two teams — showing who has dominated this fixture and whether the current odds reflect that pattern.
Goals in This Fixture
How many goals these two teams typically produce when they meet, based on their historical encounters.
1.5
Average goals per game
0%
Games with 3+ goals
25%
Both teams scored
Potential Betting Value Detected
Historical win rate (0%) differs significantly from the market-implied probability (57%) — the odds may underestimate Lugo.
Market Summary
Margin: 7.6%Implied win probabilities calculated from pre-match odds across multiple sources. A higher percentage means the market considered that outcome more likely. Compare these against your own assessment to spot potential value.
Implied Probability
Odds Range
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min | 1.57 | 3.25 | 5.50 |
| Max | 1.68 | 3.62 | 6.50 |
Market Consensus
Professional markets (sharp bookmakers) reflect sharp money and are harder to beat. Public markets are softer. When the two disagree significantly (highlighted in amber), it may indicate a mispriced line worth investigating.
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Professional market | 56.9% | 26.4% | 16.7% |
| Public market | 57.5% | 27.9% | 14.6% |
| Δ | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% |
Burgos vs Lugo — margin-removed probabilities
Result vs. Market
Result differed from market prediction
Match Statistics
Actual in-game statistics recorded for this match. Shots on target is a strong indicator of attacking pressure and correlates well with expected goals.
Head-to-Head History
Historical results between these two teams. Bold odds show which outcome was backed by the market — compare against the actual result to assess predictability of this fixture over time.
Home Record / Away Record
Aggregated season statistics from all available historical data. Use these to assess each team's overall form, scoring frequency, and tendency for high-scoring matches.
Home Record: Burgos
Away Record: Lugo
Data: football-data.co.uk
Match Summary
Lugo defeated Burgos 1:0. The match was played in Segunda División 2022. Goals were scored by Sebas Moyano 45′. 8 yellow cards were shown. Burgos had 55% possession while Lugo held 45%. Burgos had 13 shots (3 on target) compared to 11 (4 on target) for Lugo. Burgos made 5 substitutions, Lugo made 4. VAR was involved: Goal cancelled (Aleksandar Pantić 87′).
Match Events
Key match events between Burgos and Lugo — 1 goals and 8 cards recorded during the match.
assist: Ángel Baena
Match Statistics
Burgos had 55% possession against Lugo's 45%. Burgos registered 13 shots (3 on target) while Lugo managed 11 (4 on target). Corner kicks: 6–5. Fouls committed: 9–11.
Lineups
Burgos lined up in a 4-3-3 formation under Julián Calero, while Lugo deployed a 4-4-2 under Íñigo Vélez.
Squad Ratings
The overall squad rating for Burgos is 6.91, compared to — for Lugo. This metric is derived from each player's average match rating across all league appearances this season — anything above 7.00 is considered strong, while below 6.50 signals inconsistency. Burgos's highest-rated starter is Miguel Atienza (7.01), while Lugo's best-rated player is —.
Attacking Output
The starting XI of Burgos have contributed 8 goals and 5 assists this season, led by Curro Sánchez (6G). Lugo's starters account for 0 goals and 0 assists, spearheaded by —. Goals reflect clinical finishing and chance creation, while assists highlight the ability to unlock defences through through-balls, crosses, and set pieces.
Defensive Solidity
Burgos deploy 4 defenders rated 6.72 on average, against Lugo's 3-man backline averaging —. Higher defensive ratings suggest better positional awareness, fewer individual errors, and a greater likelihood of keeping clean sheets. The rating accounts for tackles won, interceptions, aerial duels, and blocks throughout the season.
Midfield Control
Burgos field 3 midfielders averaging 7.01, versus Lugo's 5 rated —. Midfield ratings reflect passing accuracy, interceptions, key passes, and overall control of possession — the team that dominates midfield typically dictates the tempo and territory of the match.
Forward Threat
Burgos start 3 forward(s) averaging 6.99, compared to 2 for Lugo averaging —. Forward ratings capture shot accuracy, movement off the ball, dribbling success, and involvement in build-up play — they indicate who carries the greater goal threat on the day.
Passing & Build-Up
Passing accuracy averages 80% for Burgos and —% for Lugo. Higher passing accuracy generally indicates a possession-based style with patient build-up through the thirds, while lower figures may suggest a more direct, counter-attacking approach with long balls and quick transitions.
Discipline
Burgos's starters have collected 17 yellow cards this season, compared to 0 for Lugo. Yellow cards reflect how aggressively a team presses and tackles — a high count may indicate a physical, high-pressing style but also risks suspensions and late free-kicks in dangerous areas.
Age & Experience
The average age of Burgos's starting XI is 28.3 (youngest: Miguel Atienza (26), oldest: Aitor Córdoba (30)), while Lugo average — (youngest: —, oldest: —). Younger squads typically offer pace, energy, and pressing intensity, while experienced lineups bring composure, game management, and the ability to handle high-pressure moments.
Squad Depth
Burgos's starters average 29 league appearances each, versus 0 for Lugo. High appearance counts indicate an established, well-drilled unit that the manager trusts week in and week out. Lower figures may suggest rotation, injuries, or emerging players still earning their place in the team.
Substitutes
Coach: Julián Calero
Substitutes
Coach: Íñigo Vélez
Recent Form
In their last 6 matches, Burgos have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats. Lugo show 1 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from their last 6 outings.
Burgos
Lugo
API data: 17 Apr 2026