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Baltic CupSeason 2025

Estonia vs Lithuania

9 June 2026 at 17:00A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
10
AI

Estonia beat Lithuania 1-0 in the Baltic Cup final at A. Le Coq Arena as substitute Karel Mustmaa scored his first international goal in the 80th minute.

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Match Analysis

AI Summary

Estonia 1-0 Lithuania: Mustmaa the hero as hosts retain Baltic Cup

Substitute Karel Mustmaa scored his first senior international goal with ten minutes remaining as Estonia edged Lithuania 1-0 at A. Le Coq Arena to retain the Baltic Cup for the second consecutive edition.

Jürgen Henn's side claimed their sixth Baltic Cup title overall and their third in the last four tournaments (2020, 2024, 2026) in a fiery final that saw referee Vitalijs Spasjonnikovs brandish 13 yellow cards — nine of them to Lithuania players — and a minor scuffle break out after the final whistle.

A cagey first half

The opening 45 minutes at Tallinn's A. Le Coq Arena were defined by defensive discipline rather than attacking incision. Estonia enjoyed periods of controlled possession but struggled to carve clear openings against a well-organised Lithuanian back line. The visitors, chasing their first Baltic Cup triumph since 2010, were content to sit deep and hit on the break, though neither side managed to test the goalkeepers meaningfully before the interval.

Karl Jakob Hein in the Estonia goal was a relative spectator during the first half, while Lithuania's shot-stopper faced only speculative efforts from distance. The 0-0 scoreline at the break reflected the lack of genuine chances.

Second half brings fire and the breakthrough

The tempo lifted after the restart. Lithuania made a double change at half-time, introducing Vaidas Magdušauskas and M. Remeikis in an attempt to inject fresh energy, but it was Estonia who gradually took control.

With the game approaching the final quarter, Henn sent on 20-year-old striker Karel Mustmaa — a late call-up to the squad after injuries ruled out Mark Anders Lepik and Rauno Sappinen. The PAOK Thessaloniki B forward had been promoted from the U21 setup following Estonia's semi-final victory over the Faroe Islands.

In the 80th minute, Mustmaa wrote his name into Estonian football folklore. Rocco Robert Shein and Mattias Käit combined superbly to create the opening, with Käit providing the final pass that freed Mustmaa in the box. The youngster met the ball cleanly and smashed it into the roof of the net, sending the 3,613-strong home crowd into raptures.

"We didn't win the World Cup, but we took a big step forward for the future," a reflective Hein said after the match.

Lithuania push but Estonia hold firm

Trailing for the first time, Lithuania pushed numbers forward in search of an equaliser, enjoying their best spell of possession in the closing stages. But Estonia's backline, marshalled superbly throughout, held firm to preserve the clean sheet.

The contest grew increasingly fractious as the clock ticked down. By full-time, referee Spasjonnikovs had issued 13 yellow cards — a tournament record for a single match — and a brief melee broke out after the final whistle, though order was restored without any red cards being shown.

Tournament implications

Estonia's victory cements their status as the dominant force in Baltic football, winning the trophy for the third time in four editions. For Lithuania, the wait for a first Baltic Cup since 2010 goes on, despite reaching multiple finals in the interim.

Earlier on Tuesday, Latvia finished fourth on home soil, losing 1-0 to the Faroe Islands in the third-place match in Riga.

Key Statistics

  • Possession: Estonia 54% — 46% Lithuania
  • Yellow cards: 13 total (4 Estonia, 9 Lithuania)
  • Attendance: 3,613 at A. Le Coq Arena
  • Estonia's Baltic Cup titles: 6 (1929, 1930, 1933, 2020, 2024, 2026)
  • Lithuania's last Baltic Cup win: 2010

What's Next

Estonia will look to carry their Baltic Cup momentum into World Cup qualifying, while Lithuania face a rebuilding job with the next Baltic Cup not until 2028.

Match Events

Key match events between Estonia and Lithuania — 1 goal and 0 cards recorded during the match.

Kick Off
Half Time
46′
Vaidas MagdušauskasE. Jankauskas
46′
M. RemeikisT. Kalinauskas
M. SoometsM. Käit
62′
65′
D. SlutaM. Burba
T. VarjundF. Liivak
71′
75′
M. VorobjovasLukas Michelbrink
Karel Mustmaa

assist: M. Käit

80′
R. SheinK. Palumets
82′
82′
A. KarvatskyiI. Venckus
Full Time

Rivalry since 2020

Estonia vs Lithuania Head to Head Results· 3

Estonia and Lithuania have met 3 times — Estonia won 2, Lithuania won 1, with 0 draws. Their rivalry dates back to 2020. Estonia leads the head-to-head with 2 victories from 3 meetings. A combined 7 goals have been scored across these fixtures, averaging 2.33 per match (4 for the home side, 3 for the visitors). Both teams scored in 1 match (33%). Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 game (33%), making it a fixture that tends to produce goals. The highest-scoring encounter finished 1–3 in 2020.

2
wins
Drawn
0
·
Total goals
7 · 2.3/match
Both scored
1/3 · 33%
Over 2.5
1/3 · 33%

Statistics are for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

API data: 18 Jun 2026