Greifswalder FC vs Hamburger SV II

Greifswalder FC's opener in the second half appeared to put them on course for a victory that pre-match models had rated as the most likely outcome (48.3%). However, Hamburger SV II's equaliser — their first goal in a friendly since the 1–5 loss to AC Horsens in February — showed the Regionalliga Nord side's resilience and prevented Greifswalder FC from making it four wins in four pre-season games.

Greifswalder FC entered the match on the back of a 22–0 thrashing of Kreisoberliga side Eintracht Zinnowitz on 27 June in which several trialists scored. Against stiffer opposition in HSV II, the attacking fluency was harder to find, though the team maintained their unbeaten pre-season record (now three draws and one win across their four friendlies in June–July 2026).

Hamburger SV II, who had drawn 0–0 with Hannover 96 II in their last outing on 15 February, showed improved defensive organisation. Having conceded five against Horsens and two against Viktoria Berlin in earlier friendlies, keeping it to one goal against a Greifswalder FC side that had scored 28 goals in its previous two friendlies represented progress.

Pre-match data from Sports Mole gave Greifswalder FC a 48.3% win probability and HSV II a 26.7% chance, with a 24.9% chance of a draw. The 1–1 result was the single most likely drawn scoreline at 12.3%. The actual total of two goals landed under the 2.5-goal threshold (50.2% probability), a departure from the 100% over-2.5 record in the only previous H2H meeting between these sides (an 8–0 Greifswalder FC win in 2023).

For Greifswalder FC, preparing for the 2026–27 Regionalliga Nordost season, the draw extends their unbeaten pre-season run. They face SV Siedenbollentin on 8 July, followed by a double-header against TSG Neustrelitz and VfB Lübeck on 11 July, and a test against FC Hansa Rostock on 15 July.

For Hamburger SV II, who compete in the Regionalliga Nord, the draw provides a useful yardstick after a mixed pre-season that included a 1–5 loss to AC Horsens and a 0–0 draw with Hannover 96 II. Their next friendly schedule was not confirmed at the time of writing.

A fair result in a competitive but low-key pre-season friendly. Greifswalder FC's second-half goal suggested the sharper edge, but HSV II's response showed they are further along in their preparation than the heavy defeat to Horsens indicated. Both sides will take positives into their respective Regionalliga campaigns.