What Is an Early Price in Horse Racing?

An early price is a fixed odds price offered by online bookmakers on horse races well before the race begins—typically from the morning of the race or even the previous evening. It represents the bookmaker's initial assessment of a horse's winning chances, locked in at a specific moment in time. When you take an early price, you're securing those odds regardless of how the market moves later in the day.

The term is most commonly associated with horse racing in the UK and Ireland, though it can apply to other sports where pre-event pricing is offered. Early prices serve as an alternative to the starting price (SP), which is the odds at which a horse actually begins the race, determined by on-course betting activity.

How Do Early Prices Work?

Early prices are generated by bookmakers' odds compilers, who use historical data, form analysis, track conditions, and betting patterns to estimate the probability of each horse winning. These prices are displayed on the bookmaker's website or mobile app, typically becoming available around 10am on race day and remaining available until approximately 20 minutes before the race starts.

The Timeline of Pricing

Understanding how prices evolve throughout the day is crucial for strategic betting:

Early Morning Odds (EMO): The first prices offered, often the previous evening or very early on race day. These tend to be longer (less likely) than later prices because the bookmaker has less information about betting patterns and market sentiment.

Opening Show Odds (OS): Prices that appear as betting activity increases and the bookmaker gains more data about how the market is moving. These typically reflect the first wave of professional and casual bettors' money.

Board Prices: The racecourse betting odds that appear approximately 10-20 minutes before the race. These are based on actual on-course betting activity and often replace online early prices as the race approaches.

Starting Price (SP): The final odds at which the horse begins the race, calculated as the mean average of the odds offered by on-course bookmakers at the moment the race begins.

Why Bookmakers Offer Early Prices

Bookmakers offer early prices for several strategic reasons:

Marketing and Customer Acquisition: Early prices attract bettors who want to lock in value, creating a competitive advantage for the bookmaker over rivals. Many punters specifically seek out the best early prices, making this a key marketing tool.

Risk Management: By offering early prices, bookmakers can gauge betting patterns and adjust their liability exposure. If significant money comes in on one horse, they can adjust their odds accordingly before the race starts.

Liquidity Generation: Early prices encourage bettors to place wagers earlier in the day, creating betting volume that bookmakers can use to balance their books and manage risk.

Early Price vs. Starting Price: Key Differences

Early Price vs. Board Price vs. Morning Line

These three terms are often confused, but they represent distinct pricing points:

Early Price: The fixed odds offered by your online bookmaker, available from morning until 20 minutes before the race. This is the price you "take" when you place a bet with your chosen bookmaker.

Board Price: The odds displayed on the bookmakers' boards at the racecourse, updated in real-time as on-course betting occurs. Board prices typically replace early prices in the final 10-20 minutes before a race and are based on actual racecourse betting activity.

Morning Line: A prediction of what the starting price will be, made by the track's official handicapper before any betting occurs. The morning line is informational only—you cannot bet at morning line odds. It serves as a reference point for comparing how the market has moved throughout the day.

What Is Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG)?

Best Odds Guaranteed is a promotional protection offered by many UK bookmakers that works in conjunction with early prices. Here's how it works:

If you take an early price on a horse and the starting price turns out to be higher (longer odds, better payout), the bookmaker will pay you out at the higher starting price instead of the early price you accepted.

BOG Example

You back a horse at an early price of 4/1. The starting price comes in at 6/1. With BOG, you'll be paid at 6/1 instead of 4/1, giving you a better return.

However, if the starting price shortens to 2/1, you keep the 4/1 you originally took—you don't go down to the worse odds.

Important Note: BOG is a bookmaker-specific offer. Not all bookmakers provide it, and terms vary. Some may exclude certain race types or betting markets. Always check your bookmaker's specific BOG terms before assuming you're covered.

Strategic Considerations: Should You Take Early Prices?

Whether to take an early price or wait for the starting price is one of horse racing betting's fundamental strategic questions. There are valid arguments on both sides.

Advantages of Taking Early Prices

Securing Value: If you believe a horse is underpriced at the early price, locking in those odds guarantees you won't miss out if the price shortens later. This is particularly valuable for horses that attract significant backing as the race approaches.

Avoiding Drift: If you're concerned a horse might drift (prices lengthen) as the race approaches, taking the early price protects you from worse odds. This often happens when a horse is reported as having a minor issue or when betting patterns suggest market doubt.

Peace of Mind: There's psychological value in knowing your odds are guaranteed. You avoid the anxiety of watching odds move unfavorably in the final minutes before a race.

Exploiting Market Inefficiencies: Early prices often contain value because bookmakers have incomplete information about betting patterns. Professional bettors frequently exploit these inefficiencies by backing horses at early prices that they believe are underpriced relative to their true winning probability.

Convenience: For casual bettors, taking an early price and moving on is simpler than monitoring prices throughout the day.

Disadvantages of Taking Early Prices

Missing Better Odds Later: If a horse drifts significantly during the day, you'll be locked into worse odds than you could have obtained closer to the race. This is particularly painful when a horse you backed shortens dramatically just before the off.

High Market Overround Early: Early prices typically contain a higher bookmaker margin (overround) than starting prices. The market percentage is often 15-20% higher early in the day compared to the final market. This means you're getting worse value by betting early.

Limited Information: Early prices are set with incomplete information about weather changes, late withdrawals, jockey changes, or other developments that might affect a horse's chances. These factors become clearer as race day progresses.

Reduced Flexibility: Once you've taken an early price, you're committed. You can't adjust your position based on new information that emerges during the day.

Psychological Bias: The comfort of "locking in" odds can lead to overconfidence. Just because you've secured a price doesn't mean it was good value—you might have simply locked in a bad bet.

Data-Driven Insights

Research from major racing data analysts reveals interesting patterns:

Horses that shorten throughout the day (early price longer than starting price) show a strike rate of approximately 20% with an A/E (actual/expected) index of 0.91 when backed at early prices. This suggests these horses are typically underpriced early.

Horses that drift throughout the day (early price shorter than starting price) show a strike rate of only about 6% with an A/E index of 0.81. Backing drifting horses at early prices is generally unprofitable.

The data suggests that shorter-priced horses (6/4 or less) that shorten further during the day offer the best value at early prices, with some research showing near break-even returns to starting price and marginal profits to Betfair Starting Price (BSP).

Common Misconceptions About Early Prices

Misconception 1: "Early Prices Are Always Better Value"

Reality: Early prices often contain worse value due to higher bookmaker margins. While some early prices are genuinely underpriced, many are simply overpriced with more juice built in. The fact that a price is offered early doesn't automatically make it good value.

Misconception 2: "You Must Take Early Prices to Get Good Odds"

Reality: Starting prices are frequently as good as or better than early prices. The market becomes more efficient as more information and money flow in. Waiting for the starting price doesn't guarantee worse odds—it often provides better odds.

Misconception 3: "All Bookmakers' Early Prices Are the Same"

Reality: Different bookmakers offer different early prices on the same horse. Shopping around for the best early price is essential. Differences of 1/5 or more in odds are common, which can significantly impact long-term profitability.

Misconception 4: "Best Odds Guaranteed Means You Always Win More"

Reality: BOG only helps if the starting price is longer than your early price. If the starting price shortens, you keep your original price—you don't benefit from BOG. Over time, starting prices shorten as often as they lengthen, so BOG provides mixed benefits.

Misconception 5: "Professional Bettors Always Take Early Prices"

Reality: Professional bettors use a nuanced approach. They take early prices selectively when they identify genuine value, but they also wait for starting prices when they believe early prices are overpriced. The key is systematic analysis, not blind early price taking.

The Psychology of Early Price Betting

Early price betting involves interesting psychological dynamics:

Anchoring Bias: Once you've seen an early price, it becomes your reference point. If prices shorten later, you feel you've "missed out," even if the later price is still good value. This anchoring can lead to poor decision-making.

Overconfidence: Locking in odds can create false confidence in your selection. You might feel you've made a smart move by securing a price, when in fact you've simply made a bet—the quality of which is unknown until the race runs.

Loss Aversion: The fear of missing out on good odds (potential loss) often outweighs the potential gain from waiting for better information. This can lead to premature betting at early prices.

Regret Avoidance: If you wait for the starting price and it's worse than the early price, you'll feel regret. This emotional anticipation often pushes bettors toward taking early prices as a regret-avoidance strategy.

Understanding these psychological patterns can help you make more rational, data-driven decisions about when to take early prices.

How to Use Early Prices Effectively

1. Compare Across Bookmakers

Never take the first early price you see. Shop around. Different bookmakers offer different prices on the same horse. Comparing prices across 3-5 bookmakers can reveal differences of several points in odds, which compounds significantly over time.

2. Analyze the Overround

Calculate the bookmaker's overround (margin) in the early prices. If the overround is significantly higher than typical starting price overrounds (15-20% vs. 3-5%), the early prices likely contain poor value. This is a sign to wait.

3. Focus on Shorter-Priced Horses

The data suggests that early prices offer better value for horses priced 6/4 or shorter. These horses are less likely to drift dramatically, making early prices more reliable. Longer-priced horses are more volatile and less suitable for early price taking.

4. Identify Genuine Market Inefficiencies

Look for situations where you believe the bookmaker has mispriced a horse due to incomplete information. Examples include:

• A horse with excellent recent form that hasn't yet attracted significant betting
• A horse with a new jockey that the market hasn't fully adjusted for
• A horse in a race with unusual circumstances (heavy ground, unusual field size)

5. Use BOG Strategically

If your bookmaker offers BOG, it provides a safety net for early price taking. However, don't let BOG be your primary reason for taking an early price. The early price itself must represent value.

6. Track Your Results

Keep detailed records of early prices you take versus the starting prices that eventuate. Calculate your ROI at both price points. This data will help you identify whether early price taking is profitable for your betting style.

7. Combine with Other Strategies

Early price taking works best as part of a broader betting strategy, not in isolation. Consider:

• Matched betting: Taking early prices on one bookmaker and laying on an exchange
• Arbitrage: Finding price discrepancies between bookmakers
• Value betting: Only taking early prices when your analysis suggests genuine value
• Hedge betting: Taking early prices and adjusting with later bets if circumstances change

Early Prices in Different Racing Markets

Early prices work slightly differently depending on the racing market:

Flat Racing

Flat racing typically has the most liquid early prices. Because races are held regularly throughout the day at multiple tracks, bookmakers can offer competitive early prices. Early prices in flat racing tend to be reasonably accurate reflections of market opinion.

National Hunt (Jumps) Racing

National Hunt races, particularly prestigious events like the Grand National or Cheltenham Festival races, often see more dramatic price movements from early prices to starting prices. These races attract attention from casual bettors throughout the day, leading to larger shifts in odds. This can create opportunities for early price value, but also greater risks.

All-Weather Racing

All-weather racing, held year-round, tends to have stable early prices with less dramatic movement. This makes early prices more reliable in all-weather racing, though perhaps with less opportunity for dramatic value.

International Racing

Early prices for international racing (e.g., Australian, American, or Irish races) offered by UK bookmakers may be less efficient than domestic racing prices, as they have less real-time information about international betting patterns.

The History and Evolution of Early Prices

Origins

Early prices emerged in the betting industry as a natural evolution of how bookmakers operated. Historically, all betting was conducted at the racecourse, with bookmakers setting odds based on on-course betting activity. As off-course betting became legal and widespread in the UK (particularly after the Betting and Gaming Act of 1960), bookmakers needed a way to offer prices before races began.

Early prices developed as bookmakers' solution to this problem. They would set prices based on their assessment of form and market expectations, allowing off-course bettors to bet before the race began.

The Telegraph Era

In the early days of off-course betting, early prices were communicated via telegraph and telephone. A bettor would call their local betting shop and ask for the early price on a particular horse. The betting shop would relay this to the main office, which would provide a price. This created delays and inefficiencies—prices could change while the bettor was on the phone.

The Digital Revolution

The internet and mobile betting have transformed early price betting. Now, bettors can see early prices instantly on their phones, compare prices across multiple bookmakers, and place bets in seconds. This has made early price betting far more efficient and accessible.

Early prices are now typically available from midnight or early morning on race day, with some bookmakers offering prices on major races days in advance.

Modern Trends

Recent trends in early price betting include:

Exchange Betting Integration: Many bettors now compare bookmaker early prices with exchange odds, looking for arbitrage opportunities.

Algorithmic Pricing: Major bookmakers now use sophisticated algorithms to set and adjust early prices based on betting patterns, minimizing inefficiencies.

Personalized Pricing: Some bookmakers offer personalized early prices to high-value customers, adjusting odds based on individual betting history.

Live Streaming Integration: With more races streamed live, bettors can make more informed decisions about early prices based on real-time information about track conditions and horse behavior.

Early Prices and Responsible Betting

While early prices can offer opportunities for skilled bettors, it's important to approach them responsibly:

Don't Chase Losses: The temptation to take early prices on longer-odds horses to recoup losses is a common trap. Stick to your strategy regardless of recent results.

Set Betting Limits: Establish a daily or weekly betting budget and stick to it, regardless of how tempting early prices appear.

Avoid Emotional Betting: Don't take early prices based on hunches or emotions. Use data and analysis.

Understand Your Limitations: Be honest about your ability to identify value. If you're consistently losing money on early prices, it may not be a suitable strategy for you.

Use Betting Filters: Many bookmakers offer tools to set betting limits, self-exclude, or take breaks. Use these if you're concerned about your betting.

If you're struggling with problem gambling, organizations like GamCare, Gamblers Anonymous, and the National Problem Gambling Clinic offer free support.

FAQ: Early Prices in Horse Racing

Q: Can I change my mind after taking an early price?

A: No, once you've placed a bet at an early price, it's binding. You cannot cancel it or change the odds. However, some bookmakers offer cash-out features that allow you to settle your bet early at a calculated price, though this may not be available for all bets.

Q: Do all bookmakers offer early prices?

A: Most major UK bookmakers offer early prices on popular races. However, coverage varies by bookmaker. Some may not offer early prices on minor races or certain betting markets. Check your bookmaker's race card to see what's available.

Q: What's the difference between early prices and ante-post prices?

A: Ante-post betting refers to betting on races days or weeks in advance, before the final declarations are made. Early prices are offered on race day itself. Ante-post prices are typically longer (higher odds) because there's more uncertainty.

Q: Are early prices better for favorites or underdogs?

A: The data suggests early prices offer better value for shorter-priced horses (favorites and near-favorites at 6/4 or shorter). Longer-priced underdogs tend to drift more during the day, making early prices less favorable for them.

Q: Should I always use Best Odds Guaranteed if available?

A: BOG is a useful protection, but it shouldn't be your primary reason for taking an early price. The early price itself must represent value. Don't take a poor early price just because BOG is available.

Q: How much do early prices typically differ from starting prices?

A: This varies considerably. Some early prices prove accurate, with starting prices very similar. Others drift significantly. On average, about 25% of horses see prices shorten from early to starting price, 25% see prices lengthen, and 50% see mixed movements. The average difference is typically 0.5-2 points in decimal odds.

Q: Can I lock in early prices and place the bet later?

A: No, you must place the bet at the time you take the early price. You cannot reserve an early price for later betting. However, some bookmakers allow you to set up a "bet builder" or "bet slip" in advance, which you can confirm when you're ready to bet.

Q: Are early prices the same on all bookmakers for the same race?

A: No, different bookmakers offer different early prices. This is one of the most important reasons to shop around. Differences can be substantial—sometimes 1-2 points or more in odds.

Q: What happens to my early price bet if a horse is withdrawn?

A: If a horse is withdrawn after you've placed an early price bet, your bet is typically void and your stake is returned. This is standard across all bookmakers.

Q: Do professional bettors use early prices?

A: Yes, but selectively. Professional bettors use early prices when they've identified genuine value, but they also wait for starting prices when they believe early prices are overpriced. The key is systematic analysis rather than blanket early price taking.

Related Terms

• Starting Price (SP) — The odds at which a horse begins the race
• Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) — Protection that pays you at the better of early or starting price
• Board Price — Racecourse betting odds in the final minutes before a race
• Morning Line — Predicted odds made before betting opens
• Fixed Odds — Betting at a locked-in price
• Ante Post Betting — Betting on races days in advance
• Overround — The bookmaker's built-in profit margin
• Value Betting — Betting when odds are better than true probability