What Exactly Is a Favourite in Betting?

A favourite in betting refers to the team, player, or outcome that oddsmakers and the betting market collectively regard as having the highest probability of winning a particular event. It is identified by having the shortest odds available in that market, making it the most likely outcome according to professional odds analysis.

The term "favourite" is fundamental to understanding sports betting. When you look at any betting market—whether it's football, horse racing, tennis, or any other sport—you'll always find one or more selections priced with the shortest odds. These are the favourites. For example, in a two-horse race, the horse priced at 1.50 is the favourite, while the horse priced at 2.80 is the underdog or outsider.

It's important to understand that being a favourite doesn't guarantee victory. The favourite is simply the selection that oddsmakers believe has the best statistical chance of winning based on their analysis. Upsets happen regularly in sports, and sometimes the favourite loses. However, over a large sample of bets, favourites win more often than they lose—which is precisely why they have shorter odds.

How Oddsmakers Determine Favourites

Oddsmakers don't randomly assign odds. Instead, they use sophisticated statistical analysis, historical data, and expert knowledge to calculate the implied probability of each outcome. The selection with the highest implied probability gets the shortest odds and becomes the favourite.

Several factors influence whether something becomes a favourite:

Oddsmakers must balance accuracy with profitability. They want to set odds that reflect true probability while also ensuring they make a profit through the "juice" or "vig" (the commission they take on bets). This is why you might occasionally see odds that seem slightly off—the oddsmakers have adjusted them to manage their risk exposure.

The Evolution of Betting Terminology

The word "favourite" has been used in betting for centuries, originating from the concept of backing the horse or competitor most likely to win. In early horse racing, bettors would identify which horse was favoured by the crowd or by expert opinion, and this became the "favourite."

As betting evolved and odds systems became more sophisticated, the term "favourite" became standardized across all sports betting. Today, whether you're betting on football, basketball, tennis, or any other sport, the favourite is universally understood as the selection with the shortest odds and highest probability of winning.

How Do You Identify a Favourite in Betting?

Identifying a favourite is straightforward once you understand the visual cues that sportsbooks use. The primary method is looking at the odds format, but different odds formats display this information differently.

Reading Negative Odds Signs

In American odds (also called moneyline odds), the favourite is always marked with a minus sign (-) in front of the number. This is the most common way to identify favourites in North American sports betting.

Here's what negative odds mean:

• -110: You must risk £110 to win £100. The favourite is a slight favourite.
• -150: You must risk £150 to win £100. The favourite is a moderate favourite.
• -300: You must risk £300 to win £100. The favourite is a heavy favourite (very likely to win).
• -1000: You must risk £1,000 to win £100. The favourite is an overwhelming favourite (extremely likely to win).

The higher the negative number, the more heavily favoured that selection is. A favourite at -110 is much closer to a toss-up than a favourite at -500.

Conversely, the underdog is marked with a plus sign (+), which means you risk a smaller amount to win more. For example, +200 means you risk £100 to win £200.

Comparing Decimal and Fractional Odds

If you're betting in the UK, Europe, or Australia, you'll encounter decimal odds instead of American odds. In decimal odds, the favourite is identified by having odds below 2.0. The lower the decimal number, the heavier the favourite:

• 1.50: Heavy favourite (equivalent to -200 in American odds)
• 1.80: Moderate favourite (equivalent to -125 in American odds)
• 2.00: Even odds or pick 'em (equivalent to -100 in American odds)
• 2.50: Underdog (equivalent to +150 in American odds)

Fractional odds, common in UK horse racing and traditional betting shops, display the favourite differently. A favourite might be shown as:

• 1/2: Heavy favourite (you risk £2 to win £1)
• 2/5: Moderate favourite (you risk £5 to win £2)
• 1/1: Even odds
• 2/1: Underdog (you risk £1 to win £2)

The key principle across all formats is the same: the favourite has the shortest odds, meaning you risk more to win less. This reflects the higher probability of the favourite winning.

Visual Cues in Betting Platforms

Modern sportsbooks make identifying favourites even easier through visual design. Most platforms:

• Bold or highlight the favourite's odds
• Place the favourite first in the list of options
• Use colour coding (often green for favourites, red for underdogs)
• Display a "favourite" badge next to the selection
• Arrange odds in descending order from shortest to longest

When you open a sportsbook app or website, the first option listed is typically the favourite. The odds get progressively longer as you move down the list, with the underdog having the longest odds and the biggest potential payout.

What Is the Difference Between a Favourite and an Underdog?

Understanding the distinction between favourites and underdogs is crucial for making informed betting decisions. These two categories represent opposite ends of the probability spectrum.

Odds and Probability

The most fundamental difference is in the implied probability. The favourite has a higher implied probability of winning, while the underdog has a lower implied probability.

For example:

• A favourite at -200 (or 1.50 in decimal) has an implied probability of approximately 67% to win
• An underdog at +200 (or 3.00 in decimal) has an implied probability of approximately 33% to win

This means the favourite is expected to win roughly twice as often as the underdog in this matchup. Over many bets, the favourite will deliver more wins, but with smaller payouts per win.

Payouts and Risk

This is where the trade-off becomes apparent:

When you bet on a favourite, you're accepting lower payouts in exchange for a higher likelihood of winning. When you bet on an underdog, you're accepting a lower chance of winning in exchange for a much larger payout if you do win.

Why Bettors Choose Each

Bettors choose favourites because:

• They want a higher probability of winning
• They prefer smaller, more frequent wins
• They're new to betting and want to "play it safe"
• They're building a parlay with multiple bets
• They've identified value in the favourite despite the short odds

Bettors choose underdogs because:

• They want the thrill of a big potential payout
• They believe the underdog has been undervalued by oddsmakers
• They're looking for one big win rather than many small wins
• They enjoy the risk and uncertainty
• They've done research suggesting the underdog has a better chance than the odds suggest

The psychology of betting plays a huge role here. Many casual bettors are attracted to underdogs because of the excitement and potential for large payouts, even though statistically, betting exclusively on underdogs is not a profitable long-term strategy.

How Do Moneyline and Point Spread Favourites Work?

There are two primary ways to bet on favourites in sports: the moneyline and the point spread. Understanding the difference is essential for effective betting.

Understanding Moneyline Favourites

A moneyline bet is the simplest form of sports betting: you're simply picking which team or player will win the event outright. There's no consideration of how much they win by—just who wins.

When betting on a moneyline favourite:

• The favourite is marked with a minus sign (-) in American odds
• You must risk more money to win less money
• The odds reflect the probability of that team winning the game

Example: In an NFL game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos:

• Chiefs are -200 (favourite)
• Broncos are +165 (underdog)

If you bet £200 on the Chiefs at -200, you win £100 if they win. If you bet £100 on the Broncos at +165, you win £165 if they win.

The moneyline favourite reflects the market's belief about which team is more likely to win. The bigger the favourite (the higher the negative number), the more confident the market is that they'll win.

Understanding Point Spread Favourites

The point spread is a different way of betting on favourites. Instead of just picking a winner, the favourite is given a "handicap" they must overcome. This levels the playing field for betting purposes.

When a team is a point spread favourite:

• They must win by more than the spread for your bet to win
• The spread is typically between 1 and 20+ points depending on the sport and matchup
• The odds are usually around -110 (meaning you risk £110 to win £100)

Example: In an NFL game:

• Chiefs are -7 point spread favourites
• Broncos are +7 underdogs

If you bet on the Chiefs at -7, they must win by 8 or more points for your bet to win. If they win by exactly 7, it's a "push" and your money is returned. If they win by 6 or fewer points (or lose), your bet loses.

The point spread favourite is determined by how many points oddsmakers believe the favourite will win by. A 7-point favourite is expected to win by around a touchdown in football.

Which Format Is Better for Betting Favourites?

Both formats have advantages and disadvantages:

Moneyline Favourites:

• Simpler to understand and predict
• Better for heavy favourites (very likely to win)
• Odds vary widely based on probability
• Better for finding value in different matchups

Point Spread Favourites:

• More balanced odds (usually -110 for both sides)
• Better for close matchups
• Easier to compare across different games
• More opportunities for "key numbers" strategy (in football)

Most professional bettors prefer the point spread for favourites because the odds are more standardized, making it easier to identify value. However, for very heavy favourites, the moneyline might offer better opportunities.

What Is the Implied Probability of a Favourite?

Understanding implied probability is crucial for identifying value in favourite bets. Implied probability is the likelihood of an outcome occurring based on the odds offered.

Calculating Implied Probability

The formula for converting odds to implied probability depends on the odds format:

For American Odds (Negative): Implied Probability = Absolute Value of Odds / (Absolute Value of Odds + 100)

Example: -200 odds Implied Probability = 200 / (200 + 100) = 200 / 300 = 0.667 = 66.7%

For Decimal Odds: Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds

Example: 1.50 odds Implied Probability = 1 / 1.50 = 0.667 = 66.7%

This means a favourite at -200 (or 1.50 in decimal) has an implied probability of approximately 67% to win.

Why Implied Probability Matters

Implied probability is the bridge between odds and value. Here's why it matters:

1. Value Assessment: If you believe a favourite has a higher probability of winning than the implied probability, there's value in that bet. For example, if a team is a -200 favourite (67% implied probability) but you believe they have a 75% chance of winning, that's a value bet.

2. Comparing Bets: Implied probability lets you compare the true risk across different bets. A -200 favourite and a -110 favourite have very different probabilities, even though they're both favourites.

3. Long-term Profitability: Professional bettors focus on finding bets where their estimated probability exceeds the implied probability. This is how they profit over time.

4. Risk Management: Understanding implied probability helps you assess whether you're taking on appropriate risk for the potential reward.

Should You Bet on Favourites? Pros and Cons

This is one of the most important questions in sports betting. The answer isn't simple, and it depends on your goals and strategy.

Advantages of Betting on Favourites

1. Higher Win Rate Favourites win more often than they lose—that's why they're favourites. If you bet exclusively on favourites, you'll win more bets than you lose. Over a large sample, NFL moneyline favourites win approximately 66.5% of the time.

2. Lower Risk Betting on the favourite is the safer option. You're backing the selection most likely to win, so your probability of success is higher.

3. Simplicity There's less analysis required. You're betting on the expected outcome, which makes it straightforward for beginners.

4. Form Stability Favourites typically have consistent form and are well-researched. You won't be relying on obscure information or hunches.

5. Less Research Required Since favourites are widely discussed and analyzed by experts, finding supporting information for your bet is easy.

Disadvantages of Betting on Favourites

1. Lower Returns This is the biggest drawback. Because favourites are more likely to win, you must risk more to win less. If you bet £200 to win £100 on a favourite, you need to win 67% of your bets just to break even (accounting for the juice).

2. The Juice Problem Sportsbooks make money through the "juice" or "vig"—the commission built into the odds. When you bet a favourite at -110, you're giving up 10% of your stake to the sportsbook. This means favourites must win more than their implied probability just for you to break even.

3. Popular Choice Because many casual bettors back favourites, sportsbooks adjust the odds to reduce their risk. This means the value in favourite bets is often worse than in underdog bets.

4. Upsets Happen Despite being the favourite, the selection still loses regularly. In NFL, moneyline favourites lose about 33.5% of the time. That's still a significant failure rate.

5. Pressure Factor Being labelled as the favourite can actually affect performance negatively. Teams and players might feel pressure, or the underdog might be more motivated.

The Reality: Do Favourites Actually Win?

Let's look at the hard data. In NFL moneyline betting since 1985, favourites have won approximately 66.5% of the time. This seems like it would be profitable—after all, you're winning two-thirds of your bets.

However, the profitability problem emerges when you account for the odds. Many favourites are heavily favoured (like -300 or higher), meaning you must risk far more to win a small amount. If you bet £300 to win £100 on a -300 favourite, and they only win 66.5% of the time, you actually lose money over the long term.

Here's why: You win 66.5% of the time (£100 × 0.665 = £66.50) but lose 33.5% of the time (£300 × 0.335 = £100.50). Your net result is -£34 per £300 wagered. You're losing money despite the favourite winning more often.

This is a crucial insight: betting on favourites blindly is not a profitable long-term strategy. The only way to profit betting on favourites is to identify ones where the odds offer value—where your assessed probability exceeds the implied probability.

Betting Strategies for Favourites

If you want to profit betting on favourites, you need a strategy beyond simply backing them because they're likely to win.

When to Back a Favourite

1. Line Shopping The most important strategy is finding the best odds. Different sportsbooks offer different odds on the same favourite. If one book has -110 and another has -120, always take the -110. This seemingly small difference compounds over hundreds of bets.

2. Identifying Value Only bet on a favourite if you believe your assessed probability exceeds the implied probability. If a team is a -200 favourite (67% implied probability) but you believe they have a 75% chance of winning, that's a value bet.

3. Key Numbers in Football In NFL betting, certain point differentials are more common (3, 7, 10, 14). Betting a favourite at -6.5 is better than -7.5 because winning by 7 is more common than winning by 6.5.

4. Situational Analysis Look for situations where the favourite is likely to excel:

• Playing at home
• Coming off a big win
• Playing against a weaker opponent
• Playing in their preferred weather conditions

Common Favourite Betting Mistakes

1. Blindly Betting Favourites This is the most common mistake. Just because something is a favourite doesn't mean it's a good bet. You must analyze the odds and assess value.

2. Ignoring the Juice Many bettors don't account for the -110 juice when calculating their break-even point. This leads to overestimating the profitability of favourite bets.

3. Not Shopping Lines Settling for the first odds you see instead of comparing across sportsbooks. This leaves money on the table.

4. Chasing Losses After losing on a favourite, some bettors increase their stakes on the next favourite to "get even." This is a recipe for disaster.

5. Betting Too Many Favourites Diversification is important. Betting exclusively on favourites limits your potential returns.

Advanced Strategies: Parlays and Teasers

Some bettors use parlays or teasers to make favourite betting more profitable.

Parlays: Combining multiple favourite bets into one wager increases the odds and potential payout. For example, betting three -110 favourites as a parlay gives you approximately +260 odds instead of risking three separate bets. However, all legs must win for the parlay to pay out, so the risk is higher.

Teasers: In sports like football and basketball, you can "tease" the point spread by moving it in your favour (e.g., moving a -7 favourite to -1). This reduces your odds but increases your chances of winning. Teasers can make heavy favourites more profitable.

These strategies work best when you have genuine edge—when you've identified value in the favourites you're combining.

Common Misconceptions About Betting Favourites

Several myths persist about betting on favourites. Let's debunk them.

"Favourites Always Win"

This is false. Favourites lose regularly. In NFL, moneyline favourites lose about one-third of the time. In tennis, the favourite might lose 20-30% of the time depending on the surface and matchup. Upsets are a normal part of sports.

The favourite is simply the most likely outcome, not a guarantee.

"Betting Favourites Is Risk-Free"

This is dangerously false. All betting carries risk. Favourites lose, sometimes unexpectedly. There is no risk-free betting strategy. Anyone claiming otherwise is either mistaken or trying to scam you.

"The Juice Doesn't Matter on Favourites"

The juice is actually more important on favourites. Because you're risking more to win less, the percentage juice you're paying is significant. A -110 favourite requires you to win 52.4% of your bets just to break even. A -120 favourite requires a 54.5% win rate. That 2% difference is huge over thousands of bets.

"All Favourites Are Good Bets"

Just because something is a favourite doesn't make it a good bet. You must assess whether the odds offer value. Some favourites are overpriced; others are underpriced. Your job as a bettor is to identify the difference.

"You Can't Make Money Betting Favourites"

This is also false. You can make money betting favourites if you identify value and manage your bankroll properly. However, it requires more skill and discipline than betting underdogs, because the margins are tighter.

Frequently Asked Questions About Betting Favourites

What is a favourite in betting?

A favourite in sports betting is the team, player, or outcome that oddsmakers and the betting market regard as having the highest probability of winning a particular event. It's identified by having the shortest odds in that market.

How do I identify a favourite in betting odds?

In American odds, look for the minus sign (-). In decimal odds, look for numbers below 2.0. In fractional odds, the favourite will have a smaller numerator than denominator (like 1/2). The favourite always has the shortest odds.

What does negative odds mean?

Negative odds in American format indicate the favourite. The number tells you how much you must risk to win £100. For example, -200 means you risk £200 to win £100. The higher the negative number, the heavier the favourite.

Should I bet on the favourite or underdog?

This depends on your strategy and what offers value. Favourites win more often but pay less. Underdogs win less often but pay more. Only bet on whichever offers the best value based on your assessment of true probability.

What is the difference between a moneyline favourite and a point spread favourite?

A moneyline favourite is simply the team expected to win outright. A point spread favourite must win by more than a specified margin. Moneyline odds vary widely; point spread odds are usually around -110 for both sides.

How often do favourites win?

In NFL moneyline betting, favourites win approximately 66.5% of the time. However, this varies by sport and matchup. The closer the matchup, the lower the favourite's win rate. Despite winning more often, favourites are not always profitable to bet on due to the odds.

What is implied probability?

Implied probability is the likelihood of an outcome occurring based on the odds offered. For example, -200 odds have an implied probability of approximately 67%. You calculate it by dividing the odds by the odds plus 100 (for American odds) or taking 1 divided by the decimal odds.

Can I make money betting on favourites?

Yes, but only if you identify value. You must find favourites where your assessed probability exceeds the implied probability. Blindly betting favourites is not profitable long-term due to the juice and the fact that favourites lose regularly despite being more likely to win.

Related Terms

• Underdog
• Odds-on
• Moneyline
• Point Spread
• Juice
• Vig
• Implied Probability
• Betting Value