What Is Profit Factor? (Definition & Core Concept)
Profit factor is a fundamental profitability metric that measures the relationship between your total gross winnings and total gross losses. Expressed as a simple ratio, it tells you exactly how much you earn for every pound (or dollar) you lose. A profit factor above 1.0 indicates a profitable system, while anything below 1.0 signals a losing strategy overall.
In the context of sports betting and trading, profit factor has become the gold standard for evaluating strategy performance because it isolates profitability from other variables like win rate, risk exposure, or sample size. While many bettors obsess over their win rate (percentage of winning bets), profit factor reveals the true edge: whether your winners are substantially larger than your losers, which is what ultimately determines long-term profitability.
The Basic Definition
At its core, profit factor answers one simple question: For every unit of money I lose, how many units do I make? If your profit factor is 1.5, you earn £1.50 for every £1.00 lost. If it's 2.0, you earn £2.00 per pound lost. This straightforward metric transcends currency and bet size, making it universally comparable across different strategies, markets, and time periods.
The elegance of profit factor lies in its simplicity. Unlike complex metrics that require deep statistical knowledge, profit factor is intuitive: higher is better, and the threshold for profitability is crystal clear at 1.0.
The Mathematical Foundation
The profit factor formula is deceptively simple:
Profit Factor = Gross Profit ÷ Gross Loss
Breaking this down:
- Gross Profit = The sum of all winnings from successful bets/trades (before deducting losses)
- Gross Loss = The sum of all losses from unsuccessful bets/trades (expressed as a positive number for division)
For example, if you've won £5,000 across all winning bets and lost £2,500 across all losing bets, your profit factor is 5,000 ÷ 2,500 = 2.0.
This formula applies universally—whether you're analyzing a single betting session, a month's worth of trades, or a multi-year strategy backtest. The calculation remains identical.
Why Profit Factor Matters More Than Win Rate
This is where profit factor reveals its true power. Many bettors fall into the "win rate trap," obsessing over the percentage of bets they win. A bettor with an 80% win rate might feel confident, but if those wins are small and the losses are large, they'll still be unprofitable overall.
Consider two hypothetical betting strategies:
Strategy A: High Win Rate, Low Profit Factor
- 80 wins averaging £50 each = £4,000 gross profit
- 20 losses averaging £250 each = £5,000 gross loss
- Win Rate: 80%
- Profit Factor: 0.8 (4,000 ÷ 5,000) — LOSING
Strategy B: Lower Win Rate, High Profit Factor
- 50 wins averaging £150 each = £7,500 gross profit
- 50 losses averaging £100 each = £5,000 gross loss
- Win Rate: 50%
- Profit Factor: 1.5 (7,500 ÷ 5,000) — PROFITABLE
Strategy B is profitable despite a 50% win rate, while Strategy A loses money despite an 80% win rate. This is why professional bettors and traders prioritize profit factor over win rate. It reflects the actual mathematical edge in your strategy.
| Metric | Strategy A | Strategy B | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Rate | 80% | 50% | Strategy A |
| Profit Factor | 0.8 | 1.5 | Strategy B |
| Total P&L | -£1,000 | +£2,500 | Strategy B |
| Conclusion | Losing | Profitable | Strategy B is superior |
How Do You Calculate Profit Factor? (Formula & Step-by-Step Guide)
Calculating profit factor is straightforward and requires only basic arithmetic. Even if you're tracking your bets manually in a spreadsheet, the process takes just minutes.
The Profit Factor Formula
Profit Factor = Gross Profit ÷ Gross Loss
Where:
- Gross Profit = Sum of all winning bet amounts (not the net profit, but the full amount won)
- Gross Loss = Absolute value of all losing bet amounts (treat losses as positive numbers for the division)
Step-by-Step Calculation Process
Follow these four simple steps:
Step 1: List All Your Bets Gather a record of all bets in your analysis period (a week, month, season, or entire year). Include winning bets and losing bets separately.
Step 2: Sum All Winning Bets Add up the total amount won from every successful bet. If you won £50, £120, and £75 on three bets, your gross profit is £245.
Step 3: Sum All Losing Bets Add up the absolute value of all losing bets. If you lost £40, £60, and £30 on three bets, your gross loss is £130.
Step 4: Divide Gross Profit by Gross Loss Take your gross profit (£245) and divide by your gross loss (£130): 245 ÷ 130 = 1.88 profit factor
That's it. Your profit factor is 1.88, meaning you earn £1.88 for every £1.00 lost.
Worked Example with Real Numbers
Let's work through a realistic sports betting example over a 20-bet sample:
Betting Record:
- Bet 1: Win £75
- Bet 2: Win £120
- Bet 3: Loss £50
- Bet 4: Win £95
- Bet 5: Loss £80
- Bet 6: Win £110
- Bet 7: Loss £40
- Bet 8: Win £65
- Bet 9: Loss £60
- Bet 10: Win £140
- Bet 11: Loss £75
- Bet 12: Win £85
- Bet 13: Loss £55
- Bet 14: Win £130
- Bet 15: Loss £70
- Bet 16: Win £100
- Bet 17: Loss £45
- Bet 18: Win £95
- Bet 19: Loss £65
- Bet 20: Win £150
Calculation Breakdown:
| Category | Bets | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Winning Bets | 12 wins (Bets 1,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20) | £75 + £120 + £95 + £110 + £65 + £140 + £85 + £130 + £100 + £95 + £150 = £1,265 |
| Losing Bets | 8 losses (Bets 3,5,7,9,11,13,15,17,19) | £50 + £80 + £40 + £60 + £75 + £55 + £70 + £45 + £65 = £540 |
| Profit Factor | 1,265 ÷ 540 | 2.34 |
| Win Rate | 12 wins ÷ 20 total | 60% |
| Net Profit | £1,265 - £540 | £725 |
Interpretation: With a profit factor of 2.34, this bettor earns £2.34 for every pound lost—a strong, sustainable edge. The 60% win rate is respectable, but it's the profit factor that truly validates the strategy's viability.
What Is a Good Profit Factor? (Benchmarks & Performance Standards)
Profit factor benchmarks vary by context, but industry standards have emerged from decades of trading and betting data. Understanding where your profit factor falls on the spectrum helps you assess whether your strategy has genuine edge or is merely riding variance.
Profit Factor Interpretation Scale
| Profit Factor | Rating | Interpretation | Sustainability |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 1.0 | Losing | Strategy loses money overall | Unsustainable—losing system |
| 1.0 – 1.25 | Marginal | Barely profitable; vulnerable to slippage, commissions, and variance | Very fragile; minor adverse conditions will flip to losses |
| 1.25 – 1.5 | Weak | Profitable but narrow margin; slippage and fees erode edge quickly | Fragile; needs strict discipline to survive market changes |
| 1.5 – 2.0 | Solid | Good edge; sustainable with proper risk management | Robust; can withstand normal market friction and variance |
| 2.0 – 3.0 | Strong | Excellent edge; highly resistant to adverse conditions | Very robust; profitable even with execution challenges |
| > 3.0 | Outstanding | Exceptional edge; extremely rare in live trading/betting | Either a genuine statistical anomaly or a very small sample size |
Benchmarks by Strategy Type
Different betting and trading styles have different expected profit factors:
Value Betting (Finding Mispriced Odds)
- Expected range: 1.3 – 1.8
- Why: Relies on identifying small edges; success depends on volume and accuracy
- Example: Finding odds of 2.5 when true probability is 2.8; small edge per bet, profits accumulate over many bets
Arbitrage Betting (Exploiting Odds Discrepancies)
- Expected range: 1.05 – 1.2
- Why: Guaranteed profit per bet is minimal; the edge is the difference between bookmakers
- Example: Backing one outcome at 1.8 while laying at 2.0; profit is locked in but small
System-Based Betting (Statistical Models/Algorithms)
- Expected range: 1.4 – 2.5
- Why: Systems can identify patterns; edge depends on model accuracy
- Example: A model that wins 55% of bets with average odds of 1.9; larger edge than pure value betting
Momentum/Trend-Following Trading
- Expected range: 1.2 – 1.8
- Why: Follows directional trends; subject to whipsaw losses
- Example: Trading breakouts; many small losses offset by fewer large wins
Contrarian/Mean-Reversion Trading
- Expected range: 1.5 – 2.5
- Why: Catches reversals; higher win rate but smaller average win
- Example: Shorting overbought conditions; frequent small wins with occasional large losses
The Danger of Overinterpreting Small Samples
A critical mistake bettors and traders make is celebrating a high profit factor after just 10–20 bets. Variance is a powerful force, and small sample sizes can produce misleading results.
Consider this scenario: You flip a coin 10 times, and it lands on heads 8 times. Is the coin biased? No—with just 10 flips, that outcome is entirely plausible from a fair coin. Similarly, a bettor who wins 8 of 10 bets with a 2.0 profit factor might simply be experiencing lucky variance, not demonstrating genuine edge.
Minimum Sample Size Recommendations:
- Casual analysis: 30–50 bets (rough screening only)
- Moderate confidence: 100–200 bets (reasonable reliability)
- High confidence: 300+ bets (statistically meaningful)
- Professional standard: 1,000+ bets (robust edge validation)
A profit factor of 1.5 over 500 bets is far more trustworthy than a profit factor of 2.0 over 15 bets. Always consider sample size when evaluating strategy performance.
How Does Profit Factor Differ From Related Metrics? (Comparisons)
Profit factor is powerful, but it's not a complete picture of strategy performance. Understanding how it relates to other metrics helps you evaluate strategies holistically.
Profit Factor vs. Win Rate
| Aspect | Profit Factor | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Definition | Ratio of gross profits to gross losses | Percentage of winning bets |
| Formula | Gross Profit ÷ Gross Loss | (Winning Bets ÷ Total Bets) × 100 |
| What It Reveals | Size of wins relative to losses | Frequency of success |
| Strength | Shows true edge regardless of frequency | Easy to understand; intuitive |
| Weakness | Can be high with few trades (small sample) | Misleading if wins are small and losses are large |
| Better For | Evaluating strategy quality and edge | Quick performance snapshot |
| Example | 50% win rate with 1.8 PF = Strong strategy | 80% win rate with 0.8 PF = Losing strategy |
Key Takeaway: A 45% win rate with a 1.8 profit factor (Strategy B above) beats an 85% win rate with a 0.8 profit factor (Strategy A above) every time. Profit factor is the superior metric for strategy evaluation.
Profit Factor vs. ROI (Return on Investment)
| Aspect | Profit Factor | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Definition | Ratio of gross profits to gross losses | (Net Profit ÷ Total Capital Invested) × 100 |
| What It Measures | Profitability per unit lost | Profitability per unit of capital risked |
| Scale | Unitless ratio (1.5, 2.0, etc.) | Percentage (15%, 50%, 200%, etc.) |
| Accounts for Capital Size | No | Yes |
| Accounts for Bet Sizing | No | Yes |
| Better For | Comparing strategies on equal footing | Comparing strategies with different capital allocations |
| Example | PF of 1.5 across £100 or £10,000 bets | ROI of 25% means £25 profit per £100 invested |
When to Use Each: Use profit factor to evaluate strategy edge regardless of capital size. Use ROI when you want to understand returns relative to your actual capital deployment.
Profit Factor vs. Yield
Yield is a metric commonly used in sports betting that measures profit as a percentage of total stakes wagered.
| Aspect | Profit Factor | Yield |
|---|---|---|
| Definition | Gross Profit ÷ Gross Loss | (Net Profit ÷ Total Staked) × 100 |
| What It Measures | Profitability relative to losses | Profitability relative to total money wagered |
| Example | PF of 1.5 | 5% yield (£50 profit on £1,000 staked) |
| Relationship | Profit Factor = 1 / (1 - Yield) | Yield = (PF - 1) / PF |
| Interpretation | Higher is always better | 2–5% is excellent for sports betting |
Practical Difference: A 5% yield and a 1.05 profit factor are mathematically related. Yield is often more intuitive for bettors (easier to visualize 5% than 1.05), while profit factor is more commonly used in trading systems.
Profit Factor vs. Drawdown
Drawdown measures the peak-to-trough decline in your cumulative profits during a losing streak. Profit factor and drawdown measure different aspects of performance:
| Aspect | Profit Factor | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|
| Definition | Ratio of gross profits to losses | Maximum peak-to-trough decline in cumulative P&L |
| What It Measures | Overall profitability | Volatility and risk exposure |
| Example | PF of 1.5 | 20% drawdown (lost 20% from peak) |
| Strength | Shows edge and profitability | Shows risk and emotional resilience required |
| Weakness | Doesn't account for volatility or losing streaks | Doesn't show profitability |
| Complementary Use | High PF + Low Drawdown = Ideal | A high PF with 50% drawdown means profits aren't stable |
Holistic Evaluation: The best strategies have both a strong profit factor (1.5+) and a manageable drawdown (under 25%). A strategy with a 2.0 profit factor but a 60% drawdown might be mathematically profitable but emotionally unbearable to trade.
Where Did Profit Factor Come From? (Historical Context)
Origins in Trading & System Analysis
Profit factor emerged in the 1980s and 1990s as quantitative traders and system developers sought a simple, universal metric to compare trading strategies. Before profit factor, traders relied on vague measures like "average win" or "average loss," which didn't account for the frequency of wins and losses.
The metric gained prominence through the work of trading system developers and quantitative analysts who backtested mechanical trading systems. As computerized trading grew, the need for standardized performance metrics became critical. Profit factor filled that gap because it:
- Is simple to calculate — No complex statistics required
- Is scale-independent — Works for any currency, bet size, or market
- Reveals edge — Shows whether winners outweigh losers by a meaningful margin
- Is comparable — Allows direct comparison between completely different strategies
By the 1990s and 2000s, profit factor became the standard metric in trading system evaluation, featured in most backtesting platforms and trading journals.
Evolution in Sports Betting
The sports betting community adopted profit factor later, as betting analytics matured in the 2000s and 2010s. Early professional bettors relied on win rate and simple profit tallies, but as the industry professionalized, bettors recognized that profit factor offered the same advantages it provided traders:
- Normalization across odds: A bettor betting at 1.5 odds versus 3.0 odds can be fairly compared using profit factor
- Bet size independence: Profit factor works whether you're staking £10 or £1,000 per bet
- Strategy comparison: Bettors could objectively compare their edge across different sports, leagues, and bet types
Today, professional sports bettors and betting syndicates use profit factor as a primary KPI (key performance indicator) for strategy evaluation, alongside metrics like ROI, yield, and Sharpe ratio.
Modern Applications
In 2024, profit factor remains the gold standard for profitability assessment across:
- Algorithmic trading systems — Backtesting and live performance evaluation
- Sports betting operations — Strategy selection and risk management
- Affiliate marketing — Evaluating betting strategy recommendations
- Financial portfolio management — Assessing hedge fund and fund manager performance
The metric's longevity reflects its fundamental soundness: it measures what matters most—whether your winners exceed your losers by a meaningful margin.
How Can You Improve Your Profit Factor? (Practical Strategies)
Improving your profit factor requires discipline and a systematic approach. Here are the most effective strategies used by professional bettors and traders.
Focus on High-Quality Trades/Bets
Not all bets are created equal. The fastest way to improve profit factor is to eliminate low-conviction bets—the ones where you lack clear edge.
How to identify high-quality bets:
- Define your edge clearly: Can you articulate why this bet has positive expected value? If you can't, skip it.
- Set a minimum odds threshold: Only bet when you believe the odds underestimate the true probability by at least 3–5%
- Use a checklist: Create a pre-bet checklist (recent form, matchup history, injury reports, weather, line movement) and only place bets that check most boxes
- Track conviction: Rate each bet on a 1–10 conviction scale and analyze which conviction levels are actually profitable
Example: A bettor who removes their lowest-conviction 20% of bets might reduce their total number of bets from 100 to 80, but their profit factor could improve from 1.2 to 1.5 because the removed bets were disproportionately losers.
Refine Risk Management
Profit factor improves when you lose less on losing bets without reducing your win size. This is where disciplined risk management becomes critical.
Key risk management practices:
- Set stop losses: Define the maximum loss you'll accept on any single bet before exiting. This prevents catastrophic losses that destroy profit factor.
- Use position sizing: Don't risk the same amount on every bet. Risk more on high-conviction bets, less on low-conviction bets.
- Avoid revenge betting: After a loss, bettors often increase bet size to "get even." This compounds losses. Stick to your system.
- Hedge when necessary: If a bet is moving against you and you have strong conviction it's still right, consider laying off part of the position to reduce downside
Example: A bettor who implements a hard stop-loss (no single bet exceeds £100 in losses) might reduce their average loss from £120 to £85, improving their profit factor from 1.3 to 1.55.
Optimize Position Sizing
How much you bet on each outcome directly impacts profit factor. Many bettors use a fixed stake (e.g., always bet £50), but this is suboptimal.
Advanced position sizing approaches:
- Kelly Criterion: Bet a percentage of your bankroll proportional to your edge. Higher edge = larger bet. This maximizes long-term growth while controlling drawdown.
- Conviction-based sizing: Bet 1 unit on low-conviction bets, 2 units on medium conviction, 3 units on high conviction. This automatically allocates more capital to your best opportunities.
- Odds-adjusted sizing: Lower odds (higher probability) = larger bet. Higher odds (lower probability) = smaller bet. This balances risk across different odds ranges.
These approaches can dramatically improve profit factor by concentrating capital on your highest-edge bets.
Avoid the Win Rate Trap
The final improvement strategy is psychological: stop chasing win rate at the expense of profit factor.
Many bettors subconsciously optimize for frequent small wins because they feel good. But this leads to a strategy where 70% of bets win £50 and 30% lose £200—a 0.875 profit factor despite a 70% win rate.
How to avoid this trap:
- Measure profit factor monthly, not just win rate
- Accept lower win rates if it means larger average wins
- Celebrate profit factor improvements as much as win rate improvements
- Educate yourself: Read case studies of professional bettors who succeed with 45–50% win rates but 1.8+ profit factors
What Are Common Misconceptions About Profit Factor? (Myth-Busting)
Myth 1: Higher Profit Factor Always Means Better Strategy
The Reality: Profit factor must be considered alongside sample size, drawdown, and consistency.
A bettor with a 2.5 profit factor over 20 bets might simply be lucky. The same bettor over 1,000 bets with a 1.4 profit factor has a more reliable, sustainable edge.
Additionally, a strategy with a 2.0 profit factor but 60% drawdown (losing 60% from peak before recovering) is less desirable than one with a 1.5 profit factor and 15% drawdown. The second strategy is more emotionally sustainable and less likely to blow up during a losing streak.
The Takeaway: Evaluate profit factor holistically with sample size, drawdown, and consistency.
Myth 2: Profit Factor Tells the Whole Story
The Reality: Profit factor is one metric among many.
A complete strategy evaluation requires:
- Win rate: Frequency of success (affects psychological resilience)
- Drawdown: Maximum peak-to-trough decline (affects capital preservation)
- Sharpe ratio: Risk-adjusted returns (accounts for volatility)
- Consistency: Are profits steady or lumpy? (affects confidence)
- Expectancy: Average profit per bet (accounts for bet frequency)
A strategy might have a 1.5 profit factor but a -5% Sharpe ratio if profits are extremely lumpy. A 1.2 profit factor with a +2.0 Sharpe ratio might be superior because it's more stable.
The Takeaway: Use profit factor as your primary metric, but always supplement with win rate, drawdown, and Sharpe ratio.
Myth 3: Profit Factor Should Be Your Only Metric
The Reality: Profit factor is the best single metric, but not sufficient alone.
Some professional bettors focus exclusively on profit factor and neglect other dimensions:
- Ignoring drawdown: A 2.0 profit factor with a 70% drawdown is riskier than a 1.5 profit factor with a 20% drawdown
- Ignoring bet frequency: A 2.0 profit factor from 5 bets is meaningless; 500 bets is meaningful
- Ignoring market conditions: A strategy with a 1.8 profit factor in bull markets might have a 0.9 profit factor in bear markets
The Takeaway: Profit factor is your primary metric, but always contextualize it with sample size, drawdown, market conditions, and other risk metrics.
What Is the Future of Profit Factor? (Trends & Evolution)
Integration with AI and Machine Learning
Modern trading and betting platforms are integrating AI-powered strategy optimization that uses profit factor as a core objective function. Instead of bettors manually tweaking their strategies, algorithms now:
- Backtest millions of parameter combinations to find the highest profit factor
- Adapt strategies in real-time based on changing market conditions
- Identify edge decay when profit factor begins to deteriorate
Platforms like QuantConnect, TradingView, and advanced sports betting analytics tools now feature AI assistants that automatically optimize strategies for profit factor improvement.
Multi-Dimensional Profit Factor Analysis
The next evolution is moving beyond a single profit factor number to segmented analysis:
- Per-setup profit factor: Which specific bet types (e.g., under/over, moneyline, parlays) have the best profit factor?
- Per-timeframe profit factor: Do your bets have better profit factor in the first half, second half, or live betting?
- Per-market-condition profit factor: Does your strategy's profit factor differ in trending vs. range-bound markets?
- Position-size-weighted profit factor: Accounting for the fact that larger bets have more impact on overall returns
Tools like TradesViz pioneered this approach in trading, and sports betting analytics platforms are following suit.
Real-Time Strategy Optimization
The future of profit factor involves continuous, automated adjustment:
- Live monitoring: Dashboards showing real-time profit factor as bets are placed
- Dynamic thresholds: Automatically adjusting bet selection criteria if profit factor drops below a threshold
- Drawdown alerts: Pausing betting if drawdown exceeds a preset limit, then resuming when conditions stabilize
- Market-regime detection: Automatically switching between different strategies based on current market conditions
This level of automation will allow bettors and traders to maintain higher profit factors by quickly adapting to changing conditions rather than relying on static strategies.
FAQ: Common Questions About Profit Factor
Is a profit factor of 1.5 good?
Yes, a profit factor of 1.5 is considered solid and sustainable. It means you earn £1.50 for every £1.00 lost, providing a meaningful edge that can survive market friction (commissions, slippage, variance).
For sports betting specifically, a 1.5 profit factor typically corresponds to a 3–5% yield, which is considered excellent. Most professional bettors target a minimum of 1.3 and aim for 1.5+.
However, context matters: a 1.5 profit factor over 50 bets is less reliable than a 1.5 profit factor over 500 bets. Always consider sample size.
Can you have a profit factor above 3.0?
Yes, but it's rare and often suspicious. A profit factor above 3.0 means you earn £3.00 for every £1.00 lost—an extraordinary edge.
In live betting/trading, profit factors above 3.0 typically indicate:
- Small sample size — Variance can produce outlier results with few bets
- Backtesting overfitting — The strategy was optimized to historical data and won't perform as well live
- Genuine market inefficiency — Rare but possible if you've discovered a true market edge before it's arbitraged away
Professional traders and bettors are skeptical of profit factors above 2.5 unless the sample size is extremely large (1,000+ bets) and the strategy has proven itself over multiple market cycles.
How many trades do I need for a reliable profit factor?
The answer depends on your confidence requirements:
- 30–50 bets: Rough screening; don't make major decisions
- 100–200 bets: Moderate confidence; reasonable for strategy selection
- 300–500 bets: High confidence; suitable for live deployment
- 1,000+ bets: Professional standard; used by funds and professional bettors
A general rule: you need at least 30 losing bets to have statistical confidence in your profit factor. If you've only had 5 losses, variance is too high to trust the metric.
Is profit factor better than expected value (EV)?
Profit factor and EV measure different things:
- Profit Factor = Ratio of gross profits to gross losses (shows relative size of wins vs. losses)
- Expected Value (EV) = Average profit per bet (shows average return per unit wagered)
A bet with +0.05 EV (5% edge) has positive expected value but doesn't tell you if your wins are 2x your losses (high profit factor) or 1.1x your losses (low profit factor).
In practice: Use both. EV tells you whether individual bets are profitable; profit factor tells you whether your overall strategy (across all bets) is sustainable. A strategy with +0.05 EV per bet should produce a profit factor above 1.0 over a large sample.
What's the difference between profit factor and Sharpe ratio?
| Metric | Profit Factor | Sharpe Ratio |
|---|---|---|
| Measures | Ratio of profits to losses | Risk-adjusted returns |
| Formula | Gross Profit ÷ Gross Loss | (Return - Risk-Free Rate) ÷ Standard Deviation |
| What It Reveals | Profitability magnitude | Consistency of returns |
| Example | PF of 1.5 | Sharpe of +1.2 |
| Strength | Simple, intuitive | Accounts for volatility and consistency |
| Weakness | Ignores volatility | More complex to calculate |
In Practice: A strategy with a 1.8 profit factor and a +2.0 Sharpe ratio is ideal (profitable and consistent). A 1.8 profit factor with a -0.5 Sharpe ratio means profits are inconsistent and risky. Always evaluate both.