What Is QBR (Quarterback Rating)?

QBR, or Total Quarterback Rating, is a comprehensive statistical metric created by ESPN in 2011 to evaluate quarterback performance on a 0-100 scale. Unlike traditional passer rating, which focuses solely on passing statistics, QBR incorporates all aspects of a quarterback's contribution to winning—including passing plays, rushing attempts, turnovers, penalties, and situational context. With 50 representing league-average performance, QBR provides a more holistic view of how much a quarterback impacts their team's likelihood of winning.

Definition and Origin

QBR stands for "Total Quarterback Rating" and represents ESPN's proprietary answer to the limitations of the traditional NFL passer rating, which had been the league's standard metric since 1971. ESPN introduced QBR to address a fundamental gap: passer rating ignored context, didn't account for rushing contributions, and couldn't measure decision-making quality under pressure.

The metric was developed by a team of statisticians and analysts at ESPN to create a more sophisticated evaluation system. The key innovation behind QBR is its use of Expected Points Added (EPA), a play-by-play valuation system that assigns credit to the quarterback based on the actual context of each play—down, distance, field position, game score, and time remaining.

Why ESPN Created QBR

For decades, the NFL relied on passer rating as its official quarterback evaluation metric. While passer rating served its purpose, it had significant blind spots:

Passer rating only measures four variables: completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and interception rate. This meant a quarterback could throw for 400 yards with 3 touchdowns but face a blowout situation where those yards were relatively meaningless—or conversely, throw for 200 yards in a tight game where each completion was critical. Passer rating treats both scenarios identically.

Passer rating ignores rushing. A dual-threat quarterback who gains 100 rushing yards and several first downs receives no credit in traditional passer rating, yet those contributions directly impact winning.

Passer rating doesn't account for turnovers beyond interceptions. Fumbles, which can be devastating to team success, are completely ignored.

Passer rating lacks situational awareness. A touchdown pass on 3rd-and-long in the final minute of a close game is worth far more than a touchdown pass on 1st-and-10 when your team is up 30 points. Passer rating doesn't distinguish between these scenarios.

ESPN's solution was QBR, which uses Expected Points Added (EPA) to assign proper value to each play based on its actual context. This allows for a more accurate assessment of how much a quarterback truly contributes to winning.

How Is QBR Calculated?

Understanding QBR requires grasping the underlying methodology, which is more complex than traditional passer rating but far more accurate in measuring quarterback impact.

The EPA (Expected Points Added) Foundation

At the heart of QBR is Expected Points Added (EPA), a metric that quantifies the value of each play in terms of points. EPA measures how much a play changes a team's expected points—the number of points a team would be expected to score given the current game situation.

For example, if a quarterback completes a pass that moves the team from their own 20-yard line (where they're expected to score 2.5 points on average) to the opponent's 30-yard line (where they're expected to score 5 points on average), that play has an EPA of +2.5 points.

The quarterback receives credit (or penalty) for the EPA generated on each play, but not 100% of it. ESPN's analysts allocate the EPA among the quarterback, receivers, offensive line, and other factors. For instance, a 50-yard completion might be credited as 60% QB decision-making and accuracy, 30% receiver separation and catch ability, and 10% offensive line protection.

Converting EPA to the 0-100 Scale

Once EPA is calculated for all of a quarterback's plays throughout a season or game, ESPN converts this raw EPA total into the 0-100 QBR scale using the following process:

1. Calculate the quarterback's total EPA across all plays where he had an opportunity to impact the outcome (excluding kneel-downs and other non-meaningful plays).

2. Adjust for strength of schedule and opponent quality, so a QB playing against elite defenses isn't penalized relative to a QB playing weaker opponents.

3. Scale to 0-100 with 50 as the midpoint. The league average EPA is set to equal a QBR of 50. Quarterbacks who generate positive EPA above the average receive scores above 50; those below average receive scores below 50.

4. Apply the 0-100 constraint. While EPA can theoretically be unlimited, QBR is constrained to the 0-100 scale for ease of interpretation. A perfect or near-perfect season might reach 95-98 QBR; the worst seasons might fall to 20-25 QBR.

What QBR Includes and Excludes

QBR includes:

• Passing plays (completions, incompletions, touchdowns, interceptions)
• Rushing plays (runs, scrambles, rushing touchdowns)
• Turnovers (fumbles, interceptions, lost fumbles)
• Sacks and yards lost
• Penalties directly attributed to the QB
• Decision-making quality under pressure
• Situational performance (red zone, two-minute drill, etc.)

QBR does not directly include:

• Offensive line performance (though it affects EPA indirectly)
• Receiver quality or separation (though allocation of EPA accounts for this)
• Defensive performance or field position gained by defense
• Special teams contributions
• Coach's play-calling quality

This distinction is important: QBR measures what the quarterback himself contributes, not the overall team success or the contributions of teammates.

How Does QBR Differ From Passer Rating?

To understand why QBR matters, it's essential to understand how it differs from the traditional passer rating that dominated quarterback evaluation for 50 years.

Passer Rating: The Traditional Metric

Passer rating, also called quarterback rating or QB rating, was created in 1971 by a commission of NFL executives, coaches, and statisticians. It was the first standardized way to measure quarterback performance and has remained the official NFL statistic for half a century.

Passer rating is calculated using four components:

• Completion percentage: (Completions / Attempts - 0.3) × 5
• Yards per attempt: (Passing Yards / Attempts - 3) × 0.25
• Touchdown rate: (Passing Touchdowns / Attempts) × 20
• Interception rate: 2.375 - (Interceptions / Attempts) × 25

Each component is capped at 2.375, summed together, divided by 6, and multiplied by 100. The maximum possible passer rating is 158.3, often called a "perfect passer rating," while the theoretical minimum is 0.

When passer rating was introduced, a score of 66.7 represented league average. However, as NFL passing games have evolved and quarterbacks have become more efficient, the league average passer rating has risen to approximately 88-90 in recent years.

Key Differences: Context vs. Volume

The Context Problem: Consider two quarterbacks in the same game. QB A throws for 350 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT in a 30-10 blowout win. QB B throws for 250 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs in a 21-20 nail-biter. Both might have similar passer ratings, but QB B had far more impact on winning because every yard and decision mattered in a tight game. QBR would reflect this difference; passer rating would not.

The Rushing Gap: A mobile quarterback like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen might rush for 600 yards and 5 touchdowns in a season. Passer rating completely ignores these contributions. QBR captures the full impact of dual-threat play.

Which Metric Is Better?

This is a nuanced question, and the honest answer is: both have value, and they measure different things.

QBR's advantages:

• Correlates better with winning and team success
• Accounts for game context and situational importance
• Measures complete quarterback impact (passing, rushing, decision-making)
• Better for evaluating dual-threat QBs
• More sophisticated and modern methodology

Passer Rating's advantages:

• Transparent and well-understood formula
• Established historical baseline (50+ years of data)
• Simpler to calculate and interpret
• Official NFL statistic
• Less subject to methodology changes

The practical approach: Smart analysts and bettors use both metrics in conjunction. A quarterback with a high passer rating but low QBR might be accumulating volume stats in blowout situations. A QB with high QBR but moderate passer rating might be making clutch plays in close games. Together, they provide a complete picture.

What Is a Good QBR Score?

Since QBR is scaled 0-100 with 50 as league average, interpreting scores is straightforward—but context matters.

Understanding the QBR Scale

• 0-25 QBR: Poor to terrible quarterback play. Significant struggles with decision-making, accuracy, or situational awareness. Historically rare for starting quarterbacks to sustain such low scores over a full season.

• 25-50 QBR: Below average to average. The quarterback is either inconsistent or simply adequate. Teams with QBs in this range typically struggle to win consistently unless they have elite defenses or running games.

• 50-75 QBR: Above average to good. This is the range where most successful starting quarterbacks operate. A 60+ QBR indicates a quarterback making positive contributions to winning; 70+ indicates a very good quarterback.

• 75-100 QBR: Excellent to elite. Scores in this range represent MVP-caliber, franchise-defining quarterback play. A 75+ QBR in a season indicates a quarterback having a career year and playing at the highest level.

It's important to note that QBR can fluctuate week-to-week and season-to-season. A quarterback might have a 65 QBR for a season but a 85 QBR in a specific game where they had an exceptional performance in a high-leverage situation.

Historical QBR Records

Since QBR was introduced in 2011, several quarterbacks have achieved elite seasonal ratings:

NFL All-Time Seasonal QBR Leaders (2011-2024):

• Tom Brady (2016): 88.5 QBR
• Patrick Mahomes (2018): 87.8 QBR
• Peyton Manning (2013): 87.2 QBR
• Aaron Rodgers (2011): 85.1 QBR
• Russell Wilson (2019): 84.5 QBR

College Football QBR Leaders:

• Jayden Daniels (LSU, 2023): 91.2 QBR
• Bryce Young (Alabama, 2021): 90.1 QBR
• Dillon Gabriel (Oregon, 2023): 87.1 QBR

These records demonstrate that even the greatest quarterbacks rarely exceed a 90 QBR, underscoring how difficult it is to sustain elite performance across an entire season.

How Do Bettors and Analysts Use QBR?

For sports bettors and fantasy football players, QBR serves as a valuable tool for evaluating quarterback performance and identifying betting opportunities.

Evaluating Quarterback Prop Bets

Passing Yards Props: A quarterback with a high QBR doesn't necessarily throw for the most yards, but QBR indicates overall efficiency and impact. A QB with a 72 QBR might have fewer passing yards than a QB with a 58 QBR (who's padding stats in garbage time). Understanding QBR helps bettors assess whether passing yard totals are realistic given the QB's actual performance level.

Touchdown Props: QBR incorporates touchdown efficiency in context. A QB with a high QBR is likely to score touchdowns in situations where they matter (red zone, close games), making touchdown props more predictable for high-QBR quarterbacks.

Game Outcome Predictions: A team starting a 75+ QBR quarterback has a significantly higher win probability than a team starting a 45 QBR quarterback. Sharp bettors use QBR to identify when the betting market has mispriced the likelihood of victory.

Situational Analysis: QBR's context-awareness makes it valuable for identifying which quarterbacks perform well in specific situations—two-minute drills, red zone, comebacks, etc. A QB with high QBR but lower passer rating likely excels in clutch situations.

Limitations and Criticisms

Despite its sophistication, QBR has legitimate limitations that bettors should understand:

Proprietary Formula: ESPN has never fully disclosed the exact methodology, making it impossible for outside analysts to replicate or audit the calculations. This lack of transparency has led to skepticism from some quarters.

Doesn't Account for All Variables: While QBR is comprehensive, it still can't capture everything—coaching quality, play-calling, offensive line performance (beyond sacks), receiver separation, and defensive pressure all influence quarterback performance in ways QBR only partially captures.

Correlation to Winning Isn't Perfect: While QBR correlates better with winning than passer rating, the correlation isn't absolute. A great quarterback on a bad team might have lower QBR than a mediocre quarterback on a great team with a strong defense and running game.

Subject to Methodology Changes: ESPN has updated the QBR formula over the years, making historical comparisons less reliable. A 75 QBR in 2012 might not be directly comparable to a 75 QBR in 2024.

Better Used Alongside Other Metrics: The most sophisticated analysis uses QBR in combination with passer rating, EPA per play, DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), and other advanced metrics. No single metric tells the complete story.

QBR in College Football

ESPN applies the same QBR methodology to college football, making it a valuable tool for evaluating college quarterbacks and predicting NFL success.

College QBR Differences

The fundamental QBR calculation remains the same in college football—EPA-based, context-aware, 0-100 scale with 50 as average. However, there are some practical differences:

Smaller Sample Size: College seasons are 12-13 games compared to 17 NFL games, so college QBR can be more volatile week-to-week as individual performances have a larger impact on seasonal ratings.

Different Competition Levels: College QBR accounts for strength of schedule, adjusting for the quality of opponents faced. A 75 QBR against elite college defenses is more impressive than a 75 QBR against weaker opponents.

Draft Evaluation: QBR has become a key metric for scouts and draft analysts evaluating college quarterbacks. A college QB with a 80+ QBR over multiple seasons is likely to be a high draft pick, as the metric suggests they'll translate well to the NFL.

Transfer Portal Impact: The transfer portal has made college football more unpredictable, and QBR helps identify which quarterbacks maintain their performance level when changing teams.

Common Misconceptions About QBR

Several myths about QBR persist, often leading to misinterpretation of the metric.

Myth 1: QBR Measures Only Passing

Reality: QBR is a comprehensive metric that includes rushing, turnovers, decision-making, and situational performance. A dual-threat quarterback who gains 100 rushing yards receives full credit in QBR, unlike in passer rating. This is why mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen often have higher QBR ratings relative to their passer ratings.

Myth 2: Higher Passer Rating Always Means Higher QBR

Reality: The two metrics measure different things, and a quarterback can have a higher passer rating but lower QBR, or vice versa. For example, a QB might accumulate a high passer rating by throwing in garbage time during blowout losses, where each completion is statistically valuable but contextually meaningless. QBR would penalize this because the plays occurred in low-leverage situations. Conversely, a QB might have a lower passer rating but higher QBR if they make clutch throws in high-pressure situations where each play matters more.

Myth 3: QBR Is the Only Metric That Matters

Reality: No single metric captures quarterback performance completely. QBR is one of the most sophisticated metrics available, but it should be used alongside passer rating, EPA per play, yards per attempt, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and other statistics. The best analysis synthesizes multiple metrics to form a complete picture.

Myth 4: QBR Can Exceed 100

Reality: While EPA can theoretically be unlimited, QBR is constrained to the 0-100 scale. The highest QBR ever recorded is in the low-to-mid 90s (Tom Brady's 88.5 in 2016 is among the highest), which demonstrates how difficult it is to sustain elite performance across an entire season. Individual games can have higher contextual ratings, but seasonal QBR doesn't exceed 100.

Myth 5: QBR Is More Accurate Than Passer Rating

Reality: "Accuracy" depends on what you're measuring. QBR is more accurate at predicting winning and measuring quarterback impact on game outcomes. Passer rating is more accurate at measuring pure passing efficiency. They measure different constructs, so one isn't simply "more accurate"—they're different tools for different purposes.

Frequently Asked Questions About QBR

What does QBR stand for?

QBR stands for "Total Quarterback Rating." It's ESPN's proprietary statistic designed to measure quarterback performance on a 0-100 scale, incorporating all aspects of a quarterback's contribution to winning.

Who created QBR and when?

ESPN created QBR in 2011. The metric was developed by ESPN's statistics team to address limitations in the traditional passer rating, which had been the NFL's official metric since 1971. QBR uses Expected Points Added (EPA) methodology to provide context-aware evaluation of quarterback performance.

How often is QBR updated?

QBR is updated after every NFL and college football game. Weekly QBR rankings are published showing how quarterbacks performed in that specific week, and seasonal QBR totals are updated throughout the season as games are played. Real-time QBR data is available on ESPN's website.

Can QBR go above 100 or below 0?

QBR is constrained to the 0-100 scale by design. While the underlying EPA calculations can theoretically be unlimited, ESPN scales all QBR ratings to fall within 0-100, with 50 representing league average. The highest seasonal QBR on record is in the high 80s (Tom Brady's 88.5 in 2016), and the lowest sustained seasonal QBR for starting quarterbacks is typically in the 20s-30s range.

Why is my favorite quarterback's QBR lower than I expected?

Several factors could explain a lower-than-expected QBR:

1. Context matters: Your QB might have accumulated passing yards in blowout situations where plays were less valuable contextually.

2. Turnovers: QBR penalizes fumbles and interceptions more heavily than passer rating, and these directly reduce EPA.

3. Rushing not counted in passer rating: If your QB is not mobile, they might have lower QBR than expected if they're being compared to a dual-threat QB.

4. Strength of schedule: QBR adjusts for opponent quality. A QB facing elite defenses might have lower QBR than one facing weaker opponents.

5. Situational context: A QB with lower QBR might be making plays in low-leverage situations where they're less valuable contextually.

Is QBR better than passer rating?

This depends on your purpose. QBR is better at predicting winning and measuring quarterback impact on game outcomes. Passer rating is better at measuring pure passing efficiency and has a longer historical track record. The best approach is using both metrics together to form a complete evaluation.

How does QBR affect sports betting?

QBR helps bettors identify:

• Which quarterbacks are truly performing well vs. accumulating volume stats
• Situational strengths and weaknesses (clutch performance, red zone efficiency)
• Whether betting markets have properly priced team win probability
• Quarterback prop bet value (passing yards, touchdowns, etc.)

A high-QBR quarterback is more likely to deliver consistent performance and win games, making them valuable for team outcome bets.

What's the difference between QBR and EPA per play?

EPA (Expected Points Added) is the underlying metric used to calculate QBR. EPA measures the value added on each individual play, while QBR aggregates EPA across all plays and scales it to 0-100. EPA per play is useful for comparing specific plays or situations, while QBR is useful for overall quarterback evaluation.

Related Terms

• Passer Rating — Traditional NFL quarterback metric based on four passing statistics
• DVOA — Defense-adjusted Value Over Average; advanced metric for evaluating team performance
• EPA — Expected Points Added; play-by-play valuation system underlying QBR
• Player Props — Individual player performance bets where QBR helps identify value
• Passing Yards — Quarterback statistic measuring total yards gained through passing