What Is a Reverse Forecast Bet?
A reverse forecast is a type of betting wager where you select two runners (typically in horse racing or greyhound racing) to finish in the top two positions of a race, regardless of which order they finish in. Unlike a straight forecast, where you must predict the exact finishing order, a reverse forecast covers both possible outcomes — making it a more forgiving bet that costs double your stake.
When you place a reverse forecast, you're essentially placing two separate bets simultaneously: one bet for Selection A to finish first and Selection B to finish second, and another bet for Selection B to finish first and Selection A to finish second. If either of these scenarios occurs, your bet wins. This flexibility is what makes reverse forecasts popular among UK punters who want to back two runners without the difficulty of predicting the exact order.
Reverse Forecast vs Straight Forecast: Key Differences
Understanding how a reverse forecast differs from a straight forecast is essential for choosing the right bet type:
| Feature | Reverse Forecast | Straight Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Selection Count | 2 runners | 2 runners |
| Order Required | Any order (both ways) | Exact order only |
| Winning Outcomes | 2 possible outcomes | 1 possible outcome |
| Stake Cost | Double (e.g., £10 for £5 stake) | Single (e.g., £5 for £5 stake) |
| Difficulty | Easier (more flexible) | Harder (exact prediction needed) |
| Typical Payout | Same odds as straight forecast, but double stake invested | Higher odds relative to stake, but less likely to win |
The key distinction is flexibility vs. cost. A reverse forecast gives you two ways to win but requires you to invest twice as much. A straight forecast requires precision but costs less upfront. Your choice depends on how confident you are about the finishing order of your two selections.
How Does a Reverse Forecast Bet Work?
The Mechanics Explained
A reverse forecast operates as a two-in-one bet structure. When you place a £5 reverse forecast on Horse A and Horse B, you're not simply placing one £5 bet — you're placing two £5 bets, for a total stake of £10. Here's how it breaks down:
- Bet 1: Horse A finishes 1st, Horse B finishes 2nd
- Bet 2: Horse B finishes 1st, Horse A finishes 2nd
Both bets are active simultaneously. If either scenario occurs, your reverse forecast wins. This is why punters often describe it as "covering both ways" or "both orders."
Think of it like buying two lottery tickets with different number combinations — you've increased your chances of winning because there are now two ways for your selection to succeed. However, this increased flexibility comes at the cost of doubling your stake.
Real-World Examples
Example 1: Horse Racing
You fancy Horse 3 and Horse 7 in a six-horse race. You place a £5 reverse forecast bet on both runners. Your total stake is £10 (£5 on each possible order).
The race results are:
- 1st: Horse 7
- 2nd: Horse 3
- 3rd: Horse 5
Result: You win. Even though Horse 7 finished first and Horse 3 finished second (not the other way around), your reverse forecast covers this outcome, so your bet is successful.
Example 2: Greyhound Racing
You place a £3 reverse forecast on Greyhound 2 and Greyhound 8 in an eight-dog race. Total stake: £6.
Possible outcomes:
| Finishing Order | Outcome | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Dog 2 first, Dog 8 second | WIN | Covered by Bet 1 |
| Dog 8 first, Dog 2 second | WIN | Covered by Bet 2 |
| Dog 2 first, Dog 5 second | LOSE | Dog 8 didn't finish in top two |
| Dog 8 first, Dog 3 second | LOSE | Dog 2 didn't finish in top two |
| Dog 2 second, Dog 8 third | LOSE | Dog 8 didn't finish in top two |
As this table shows, both of your selections must finish in the top two positions for your reverse forecast to win. It's not enough for one runner to finish first; both must occupy the 1st and 2nd spots.
What Is the History and Origin of Forecast Betting?
Where Did Forecast Betting Come From?
Forecast betting emerged in the United Kingdom during the mid-20th century as bookmakers sought to create more diverse betting options beyond simple win and place bets. Prior to the introduction of forecasts, punters had limited choices: they could back a horse to win, to place (finish in the top 2 or 3, depending on race size), or to do both via an each-way bet.
Forecast betting revolutionized the industry by allowing punters to predict the finishing order of the top two runners. This required more skill and offered higher odds, making it an attractive option for more experienced bettors. Initially, forecast betting was only available at physical racecourses through on-course bookmakers, with odds determined by the bookmaker's assessment of the runners' chances.
Evolution of Reverse Forecasts
The reverse forecast emerged as a natural variation of the straight forecast, designed to make the bet more accessible to punters who wanted to back two runners but found it difficult to predict the exact finishing order. Rather than requiring bettors to guess whether Horse A or Horse B would finish first, the reverse forecast simply asked: "Will these two horses finish 1st and 2nd in any order?"
This innovation proved popular, and by the late 20th century, reverse forecasts became a standard offering at major UK racecourses and with established bookmakers. The rise of online betting in the 2000s democratised access to reverse forecasts, allowing punters to place these bets from home without visiting a betting shop.
Today, reverse forecasts are available not only through traditional bookmakers but also through the Tote (the UK's official pool betting operator), where they're known as Quinellas. The term "reverse forecast" is primarily used in the UK with bookmakers offering fixed odds, while the Tote uses different terminology for pool-based betting.
How Does a Reverse Forecast Differ From Other Bet Types?
Reverse Forecast vs Combination Forecast
A combination forecast (also called a "combination tricast" when involving three runners) is a more complex and expensive variation that involves three or more selections. Where a reverse forecast covers two runners in two possible orders, a combination forecast covers multiple runners in multiple possible finishing positions.
For example, a combination forecast on three horses (A, B, and C) would cover six different finishing orders: ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, and CBA. This means placing six separate bets, making it significantly more expensive than a reverse forecast. The potential returns are higher, but so is the risk and cost.
Key difference: Reverse forecasts are simpler, cheaper, and more accessible; combination forecasts are complex, expensive, and require backing three or more runners.
Reverse Forecast vs Exacta and Quinella
If you've heard the terms "Exacta" and "Quinella," you may wonder how they relate to reverse forecasts. These are actually Tote betting terms used in pool betting systems, as opposed to fixed-odds betting with bookmakers.
- Exacta = Straight Forecast (Tote version) — predict the exact finishing order of two runners
- Quinella = Reverse Forecast (Tote version) — predict two runners to finish 1st and 2nd in any order
The fundamental mechanics are identical, but the odds and payouts differ significantly. With Tote betting, odds are pool-based, meaning they depend on how much money is wagered by all punters in that pool. With bookmaker reverse forecasts, odds are fixed at the time you place your bet. This means Tote Quinellas can offer better value in some cases, while bookmaker reverse forecasts provide certainty about your potential returns.
Key difference: Tote Quinellas offer variable, pool-based odds; bookmaker reverse forecasts offer fixed odds set at bet placement.
Reverse Forecast vs Each-Way Bet
An each-way bet is fundamentally different from a reverse forecast, though both are popular with UK punters seeking more flexibility than a simple win bet.
An each-way bet consists of two parts:
- Win part: Your selection finishes first
- Place part: Your selection finishes in the top 2, 3, or 4 (depending on race type)
A reverse forecast, by contrast, requires both of your selections to finish in the top two positions in any order. It's a bet about two runners, not one runner's performance in two different outcomes.
The each-way bet is ideal if you're backing a single horse you think has a good chance but might not win. The reverse forecast is ideal if you're confident about two runners and want to cover both possible finishing orders between them.
How Do You Place a Reverse Forecast Bet?
Step-by-Step Placement Guide
Placing a reverse forecast bet is straightforward, whether you're using an online bookmaker or visiting a betting shop. Here's the process:
Step 1: Select Your Race Navigate to the horse racing or greyhound racing section of your bookmaker's website (or visit a betting shop). Choose the race you want to bet on.
Step 2: Find the Forecast Betting Market Look for the "Forecast" or "Forecast Betting" section. This is separate from the standard win/place markets. Most bookmakers display forecast options prominently on the race page.
Step 3: Choose Your Two Runners Select the two runners you believe will finish in the top two positions. Click on their numbers or names to add them to your bet slip.
Step 4: Select "Any Order" or "Reverse" This is the crucial step. You'll see an option to select either:
- "Any Order" (most common)
- "Reverse" (some bookmakers)
- "Both Ways" (alternative terminology)
Ensure you select this option rather than "Exact Order," which would create a straight forecast instead.
Step 5: Enter Your Stake Input the stake you wish to place. Remember that your total cost will be double this amount because you're placing two bets. For example, if you enter £5, you'll be wagering £10 total.
Step 6: Review and Confirm Check that your selections, bet type, and stake are correct. Verify the odds displayed (these are the odds for each individual bet). Once satisfied, click "Place Bet" to confirm.
Key Considerations Before Placing
Before you commit to a reverse forecast bet, consider these important factors:
- Non-runner rules: Check your bookmaker's terms regarding what happens if one of your selections is declared a non-runner before the race starts.
- Stake verification: Double-check that you're comfortable with the total stake (double your entered amount).
- Odds confirmation: Ensure you understand the odds being offered and have reviewed them carefully.
- Bet slip accuracy: Confirm that both selections are correct before submitting.
- Closing time: Note the betting closing time for the race — most bookmakers stop accepting bets a few minutes before the off.
What Happens With Non-Runners and Edge Cases?
Non-Runner Rules
One of the most important aspects of reverse forecast betting is understanding what happens when one of your selected runners is declared a non-runner (withdrawn from the race before it starts).
If one of your two selections is a non-runner, your reverse forecast does not lose automatically. Instead, it's converted into a single bet on the remaining runner. Here's how it works:
Scenario: You place a £10 reverse forecast on Horse 3 and Horse 7. Before the race, Horse 7 is withdrawn as a non-runner.
What happens: Your £10 reverse forecast becomes a £5 single bet on Horse 3 to win the race (at the starting price). You've effectively lost half your stake (the £5 that was wagered on Horse 7 finishing in the top two), but you still have a live bet on your remaining selection.
Outcome: If Horse 3 wins, you win the bet. If Horse 3 finishes 2nd or lower, you lose.
This rule protects punters from losing their entire stake due to circumstances beyond their control. However, it's worth noting that different bookmakers may have slightly different rules regarding non-runners, so it's wise to check the specific terms of your bookmaker before placing your bet.
Other Edge Cases
Dead Heats
If your two selections finish in a dead heat for first or second place, your reverse forecast is settled at reduced odds. The reduction depends on the number of horses involved in the dead heat. For example, if two horses dead heat for first place, your odds are reduced by 25%.
Rule 4 Deductions
If there's a non-runner in the race (not one of your selections), bookmakers apply a "Rule 4 deduction" to reduce the odds of all bets in that race. This is a standard industry practice to protect bookmakers from significant losses due to unexpected withdrawals.
Voided Races
If a race is voided (declared null and void by the racing authority), all bets on that race, including reverse forecasts, are refunded at odds of 1/1 (your stake returned, no profit).
How Much Does a Reverse Forecast Cost and What Are the Returns?
Understanding Stake and Cost
The most important thing to understand about reverse forecast costs is this: your total stake is always double the amount you enter.
If you decide to place a reverse forecast with a £1 stake, you'll actually be wagering £2. If you enter £5, your total cost is £10. Here's a simple formula:
Total Cost = Stake Amount × 2
| Stake Amount | Total Cost | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| £1 | £2 | One bet on each possible order |
| £2 | £4 | One bet on each possible order |
| £5 | £10 | One bet on each possible order |
| £10 | £20 | One bet on each possible order |
| £50 | £100 | One bet on each possible order |
This doubling of cost is the trade-off for the flexibility of covering both possible finishing orders. A straight forecast on the same two runners would cost you only £1 (or £2, £5, £10, or £50 respectively), but you'd have only one way to win instead of two.
Calculating Potential Returns
Calculating potential returns from a reverse forecast requires understanding how odds work in betting. The odds offered represent the bookmaker's assessment of the probability that your two selected runners will finish in the top two positions in either order.
Basic Return Formula:
If your reverse forecast wins, each of the two bets within it pays out at the odds offered. Here's a simplified example:
Scenario: You place a £5 reverse forecast on two horses at odds of 5/1 (5 to 1).
- Total stake: £10 (£5 on each possible order)
- Odds: 5/1
- Return calculation: (£5 × 5) + £5 = £30 per bet
- Total return if you win: £30 + £30 = £60 (plus your original £10 stake returned, for a net profit of £50)
However, this is a simplified example. In reality, odds for reverse forecasts are calculated based on the starting prices (SP) of both runners at the time the race starts, and the calculation is more complex. The odds of a reverse forecast depend on the combined probability of both runners finishing in the top two in either order.
Using a Bet Calculator
Rather than calculating by hand, most punters use a bet calculator provided by their bookmaker or third-party betting sites. These calculators automatically compute your potential returns based on the odds and stake you enter. This is the most reliable way to understand your potential returns before placing a bet.
Key takeaway: The odds for a reverse forecast are typically lower than the odds for a straight forecast on the same two runners (because you have two ways to win instead of one), but because you're investing double the stake, your potential profit can be comparable or even higher, depending on the odds.
When Should You Use a Reverse Forecast Bet?
Ideal Scenarios for Reverse Forecasts
A reverse forecast is the right choice in specific betting situations. Here are the scenarios where it makes sense:
1. You're Confident About Two Runners But Uncertain of Order
If you've analysed a race and identified two horses you believe will finish in the top two, but you're unsure which will win, a reverse forecast is ideal. It allows you to back both runners without the difficulty of predicting the exact order.
2. You Want More Flexibility Than a Straight Forecast
If you're torn between placing a straight forecast (higher odds, lower probability) and simply backing both runners to win separately (lower odds, higher cost), a reverse forecast splits the difference. It covers both possible outcomes of your two selections finishing in the top two.
3. The Odds Justify the Double Stake
Sometimes, the odds offered on a reverse forecast are attractive enough to justify the double stake. If you calculate that the potential return is worth the increased outlay, it may be a good bet. Always use a bet calculator to verify this before placing.
4. You're Building a Larger Betting Strategy
Reverse forecasts can be combined with other bets (such as accumulators or patent bets) to create more complex betting strategies. If you're building a multi-bet strategy, reverse forecasts can be useful components.
Common Misconceptions About Reverse Forecasts
Several myths surround reverse forecasts that can lead punters astray. Here are the most important ones to understand:
Misconception 1: "A Reverse Forecast Is a Guaranteed Win If Both Runners Finish in the Top Two"
The Truth: A reverse forecast requires both runners to finish in the top two, but it's not a guaranteed win in the sense that you still lose money if the odds don't work in your favour. The odds reflect the probability of this outcome. If you place a reverse forecast at 5/1 odds and both runners finish in the top two, you win — but you've still taken a risk, and the odds could have been better or worse depending on the starting prices.
Misconception 2: "A Reverse Forecast Is Always Better Than a Straight Forecast"
The Truth: A reverse forecast is better only if you're uncertain about the finishing order. If you're highly confident that Horse A will beat Horse B, a straight forecast is the better choice because it offers higher odds relative to your stake. The reverse forecast's advantage is flexibility, not guaranteed superior returns.
Misconception 3: "The Payout From a Reverse Forecast Is Double a Straight Forecast"
The Truth: The payout is typically the same as a straight forecast for the correct combination, but you've invested double the stake. If a straight forecast on Horse A and Horse B (in that order) at 5/1 returns £30 on a £5 stake, a reverse forecast on the same horses at 5/1 will also return £30 — but you've wagered £10 instead of £5. Your net profit is the same, but your return on investment is half.
Misconception 4: "You Can't Lose Money on a Reverse Forecast If Both Runners Finish in the Top Two"
The Truth: You can still lose money overall if you've placed other bets or if the odds were poor. Additionally, if one runner is a non-runner, your bet converts to a single, which can result in a loss if that runner doesn't win.
Frequently Asked Questions About Reverse Forecasts
Q: Can you place a reverse forecast on any race?
A: Most UK bookmakers offer reverse forecasts on major horse racing and greyhound racing events. However, not all races may have forecast betting available. Check your bookmaker's website for the specific race you're interested in. Some smaller meetings or certain race types may not offer forecast betting.
Q: What's the minimum stake for a reverse forecast?
A: The minimum stake varies by bookmaker, but typically ranges from £0.50 to £1. Remember that your total stake will be double this amount. Some bookmakers allow fractional stakes (e.g., 50p), while others have a £1 minimum.
Q: How long do I have to place a reverse forecast before the race starts?
A: Most bookmakers accept reverse forecast bets until a few minutes before the race start time (the "off"). The exact cut-off time is displayed on the betting slip. Online betting typically closes 2-5 minutes before the off, depending on the bookmaker.
Q: What if both my selections finish outside the top two?
A: Your reverse forecast loses. For a reverse forecast to win, both of your selected runners must finish in the top two positions. If one finishes 3rd or lower, the bet is unsuccessful and your stake is lost.
Q: Do all bookmakers offer reverse forecasts?
A: Most major UK bookmakers offer reverse forecasts, but not all smaller or specialist bookmakers do. It's worth checking with your chosen bookmaker to confirm they offer this bet type. Online bookmakers almost universally offer reverse forecasts on major racing events.
Q: What's the difference between a reverse forecast and a Tote Quinella?
A: Both are essentially the same bet (two runners to finish 1st and 2nd in any order), but they differ in how odds are calculated. A reverse forecast with a bookmaker offers fixed odds determined at bet placement. A Tote Quinella offers pool-based odds that vary depending on how much money is wagered by all punters in that pool. Tote Quinellas can sometimes offer better value, but bookmaker reverse forecasts provide certainty about your odds.
Q: Can you combine a reverse forecast with other bets?
A: Yes. Reverse forecasts can be combined with other bets to create more complex wagers, such as patents, accumulators, or lucky 15 bets. However, the structure and payout of these combined bets will vary. Check with your bookmaker for specific details on how they handle reverse forecasts in multi-bet combinations.
Q: Are reverse forecasts available for sports other than horse and greyhound racing?
A: Reverse forecasts are primarily available for horse racing and greyhound racing in the UK. Some bookmakers may offer similar forecast-style bets for other sports (such as motorsports), but these are rare. The forecast betting tradition is deeply rooted in racing, and that's where you'll find the widest selection of forecast bet types.