What Exactly Is a Tissue Price in Betting?
A tissue price is an early morning predicted market compiled by a bookmaker's trader before official betting begins. The term has evolved to encompass two distinct but related meanings in the betting world. First, it refers to the initial odds forecast that professional bookmakers release at the start of the trading day—these are educated guesses about where the market should price each horse before actual money begins flowing. Second, and increasingly common among serious punters, a tissue price is a personal forecast of odds that bettors create themselves to compare against bookmaker prices and identify value opportunities.
The term "tissue price" itself reflects the betting industry's long history. In the days before digital betting, odds were printed on thin tissue paper and distributed to betting shops and punters. These early morning forecasts were literally written on tissue, and the name stuck even as betting moved entirely online. Today, tissue prices exist in digital form, but the terminology remains a nod to betting's traditional roots.
Bookmaker Tissue vs Punter Tissue — Two Different Uses
Understanding the distinction between these two types is crucial for any bettor. A bookmaker's tissue price is the opening odds set by professional traders at a betting shop or online operator. These traders use sophisticated analysis, historical data, and market intelligence to predict where each horse should be priced. They're essentially saying: "Before the betting market opens to the public, here's where we think the true odds should be."
A punter's tissue price, by contrast, is a personal forecast created by an individual bettor. This is your own calculation of what you believe the correct odds should be for each runner in a race. By creating your own tissue, you're stepping into the mindset of a bookmaker—pricing the race as if you were the one setting odds. The goal is to compare your tissue against the actual bookmaker prices to find horses that are overpriced (offering better odds than they should) or underpriced (offering worse odds than they should).
The confusion between these two meanings often arises because both use the same term, but they serve very different purposes. Bookmaker tissues are market predictions; punter tissues are tools for finding value. Both, however, represent an early or pre-market assessment of odds before the full weight of betting volume influences prices.
Where Did the Term "Tissue Price" Come From?
The Etymology and Historical Origins
The word "tissue" in betting terminology is a direct reference to the thin, lightweight paper on which early odds were printed. In the pre-digital era of horse racing betting, bookmakers and their staff would compile predicted odds and print them on tissue paper—the kind of delicate, semi-transparent paper used for airmail letters and lightweight documents. These tissue papers were then distributed to betting shops, racecourses, and to punters who subscribed to early odds services.
The practice of printing odds on tissue paper became so standard that the name itself became synonymous with early morning forecasts, regardless of the medium. Even when odds were later printed on regular paper or displayed on chalkboards, the term "tissue price" persisted. This linguistic legacy is common in betting—old terminology often outlives the physical practices that created it. Just as we still "dial" phone numbers despite no rotary phones existing, we still call early odds "tissue prices" despite tissue paper being obsolete.
The tradition of publishing tissue prices dates back to at least the early 20th century, when horse racing was one of the most popular forms of gambling in the UK. Professional tipsters and betting advisors would compile their own odds forecasts and distribute them to paying subscribers. These publications became known as "tissues," and the odds within them became "tissue prices." The practice represented an early form of expert analysis in betting—punters could purchase or access these tissue papers to see what professionals thought about the day's racing.
How Tissue Prices Evolved in Modern Betting
The transition from physical tissue papers to digital odds has fundamentally changed how tissue prices are compiled and distributed, but the core concept remains unchanged. In the modern era, bookmakers release their tissue prices through their websites, mobile apps, and betting platforms within minutes of the day's racing card being published. These digital tissues are often labeled as "odds forecasts," "early odds," or simply the opening prices on the betting platform.
The evolution has also democratized tissue price creation. Historically, only professional bookmakers and well-resourced tipsters could compile comprehensive tissue prices. Today, any punter with a spreadsheet and basic betting knowledge can create their own tissue for any race. The rise of online betting exchanges like Betfair has further changed the landscape—instead of relying solely on bookmaker prices, punters can now see what other bettors think about odds (reflected in exchange pricing) and compare that against their own tissue.
Technology has also introduced algorithmic tissue creation. Sophisticated betting software now uses machine learning and historical data to automatically generate tissue prices. Tools like the Inform Racing Betting Tissue Tool allow punters to input their own form analysis and speed ratings, and the software instantly calculates corresponding odds for every horse in a race. This automation has made tissue price creation faster and more accessible than ever before, though the fundamental principle—comparing your forecast odds against market odds to find value—remains unchanged.
How Do Bookmakers Create Tissue Prices?
The Trader's Process
When a bookmaker's trader sits down in the early morning to compile tissue prices, they're not making random guesses. The process is methodical and informed by years of experience and data. A trader typically begins by reviewing the race card: the distance, track conditions, the quality of the field, any horses with recent form updates, and any significant news (injuries, jockey changes, etc.).
The trader then considers several key inputs. First, they examine the previous day's or week's betting patterns for similar races. If a particular type of horse (say, three-year-old fillies at seven furlongs) has been consistently overpriced or underpriced, the trader adjusts accordingly. Second, they review speed ratings and form analysis—professional traders often have access to form guides and rating systems that quantify each horse's ability. Third, they consider the likely betting patterns: will the favourite attract heavy money, or is it a wide-open race where money might scatter across multiple runners?
From this analysis, the trader assigns a rough probability to each horse winning. For example, they might decide that Horse A has a 30% chance, Horse B has 20%, Horse C has 15%, and so on. These probabilities are then converted into odds using the formula: odds = (100 / probability) - 1. A 30% probability becomes roughly 7/3 odds; a 20% probability becomes 4/1 odds.
However, the trader doesn't simply publish these odds as-is. They apply a vigorish or overround—a built-in margin that ensures the bookmaker profits regardless of the outcome. If the true probabilities add up to 100%, the bookmaker might adjust them so they add up to 105% or 110%. This extra margin is the bookmaker's edge. The trader then publishes the tissue prices, which represent their best estimate of where the market should open before public money begins flowing.
Factors That Influence Tissue Prices
Multiple factors influence how a trader sets tissue prices, and understanding these factors helps punters understand why tissue prices sometimes differ significantly from actual starting prices.
| Factor | Influence on Tissue Price | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Form and ratings | Primary driver | A horse with high speed ratings is priced shorter |
| Track conditions | Moderate to high | Soft ground may favour stayers; firm ground favours speedsters |
| Jockey changes | Moderate | A top jockey replacing an average one shortens odds |
| Recent betting patterns | Moderate | If a horse has been heavily backed in similar races, it's priced accordingly |
| News and injuries | High | A horse returning from injury or with a new trainer affects pricing |
| Field strength | Moderate | A weak field means favourite odds shorten; a strong field spreads odds wider |
| Time of year | Low to moderate | Seasonal trends in certain race types influence opening odds |
| Bookmaker's position | Low | If the bookmaker has liability on a particular horse, they may widen its odds |
Traders also consider comparative pricing—how does this horse compare to similar horses that ran recently? If a horse ran poorly last time but is now priced at 5/1, the trader asks: did something change, or is this overpriced? By using previous races as a benchmark, traders maintain consistency across their pricing.
It's important to note that tissue prices are not static. From the moment they're published until the race begins, bookmakers adjust odds in response to betting volume. If the favourite attracts heavy money, the bookmaker shortens its odds and lengthens others to balance their books. These adjustments move prices away from the original tissue, which is why tissue prices are often quite different from starting prices.
How Can You Create Your Own Tissue Odds?
Creating your own tissue prices is one of the most valuable skills a bettor can develop. It transforms you from a passive consumer of bookmaker odds into an active analyst who can identify genuine value. The process doesn't require advanced mathematics or expensive software—though both can help. Let's walk through three practical methods.
Method 1 — The Rating-Based Approach
The rating-based approach is the most straightforward method for punters who have access to form ratings (either from publications like Racing Post, or their own personal ratings).
Step 1: Assign ratings to each horse. Using form guides or your own analysis, assign a numerical rating to each horse in the race. For example, you might rate them 140, 135, 130, 125, 120, 115, 110, 105. These ratings represent your assessment of each horse's ability.
Step 2: Convert ratings to odds. A simple conversion method is to allow 1 point in the betting for every 10 points in the rating. So a horse rated 140 would get odds of 14 points (or 14/10 = 7/5), a horse rated 130 would get 13 points (or 13/10 = 6/5), and so on. This is a rough approximation, but it works for quick tissue creation.
Example: If your ratings are 140, 130, 120, 110, you'd assign odds roughly as follows:
- Horse A (140): 7/5
- Horse B (130): 6/5
- Horse C (120): 6/1
- Horse D (110): 11/1
Step 3: Check your overround. Add up the implied probabilities of your odds. If they total more than 100%, your tissue is realistic (you've built in a margin). If they total less than 100%, you're being too generous with the odds and should shorten them slightly.
This method is quick and intuitive, making it ideal for punters who want to create tissues for multiple races in a short time.
Method 2 — The Percentage Probability Method
This method is more mathematical but also more precise. It works by first estimating the probability of each horse winning, then converting those probabilities into odds.
Step 1: Estimate winning probabilities. Study the race and estimate what percentage chance you think each horse has of winning. These should add up to 100% (before you add your margin). For example:
- Horse A: 25%
- Horse B: 20%
- Horse C: 15%
- Horse D: 15%
- Horse E: 10%
- Horse F: 10%
- Horse G: 5%
Step 2: Convert probabilities to odds. Use the formula: Odds = (100 / Probability) - 1. So a 25% probability becomes (100 / 25) - 1 = 3/1 odds. A 20% probability becomes (100 / 20) - 1 = 4/1 odds.
Step 3: Add your margin. If your probabilities only add up to 100%, increase each horse's probability slightly (proportionally) so they total 105% or 110%. This represents your margin. Then convert the adjusted probabilities to odds.
Step 4: Refine. Review your tissue and ask: do these odds feel right? Is Horse A really 3/1 while Horse B is 4/1? Adjust if needed.
This method is more disciplined and forces you to think clearly about each horse's true winning chances. It's the approach used by serious professional punters.
Method 3 — The Benchmark Horse Method
This method uses one or more reference horses to price the rest of the field.
Step 1: Identify a benchmark horse. Choose a horse in the race that you feel confident about pricing. Let's say you decide Horse A should be 4/1.
Step 2: Price other horses relative to the benchmark. For each other horse, ask: is this horse better or worse than the benchmark? By how much? If Horse B is clearly superior to the benchmark, price it shorter (e.g., 3/1 or 5/2). If Horse C is clearly inferior, price it longer (e.g., 6/1 or 7/1).
Step 3: Check for consistency. Review the entire tissue and ensure the relative gaps between odds make sense. If you've priced two horses very close in ability, their odds should be close. If you've priced them far apart in ability, their odds should reflect that.
Example: You decide Horse A (the benchmark) should be 4/1. You think Horse B is better by about 1 length, so you price it 7/2. You think Horse C is worse by about 2 lengths, so you price it 9/2. And so on.
This method is intuitive for punters who think in terms of form and relative ability rather than absolute probabilities.
Common Mistakes When Creating Tissue Prices
Even experienced punters make errors when creating tissues. Here are the most common pitfalls:
Overcomplication. Some punters create elaborate formulas or weightings that don't improve accuracy. Remember: a tissue is a forecast, not a precise calculation. Simple methods often work better than complex ones.
Bias towards favourites. There's a psychological tendency to price favourites too short and outsiders too long. Be aware of this bias and consciously check for it in your tissue.
Ignoring track conditions. A tissue created without considering the specific going (firm, good, soft, heavy) will often be inaccurate. Always factor in how conditions favour or disfavour certain types of horses.
Not updating for news. If a horse has a jockey change or recent injury news, your tissue needs to reflect that. Using last week's tissue for today's race without updates is a common error.
Poor probability assessment. The biggest source of error is simply misjudging horses' winning chances. This improves with experience and study, but it's worth acknowledging that your tissue is only as good as your form analysis.
Forgetting the margin. If your tissue probabilities only add up to 100%, you've built in no margin. Adjust your odds slightly to ensure they add up to 105-110% so you're pricing like a bookmaker.
How Do Tissue Prices Differ From Starting Prices and Other Odds?
Tissue Price vs Starting Price
The difference between tissue price and starting price is one of the most important distinctions in betting terminology.
| Aspect | Tissue Price | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|
| Timing | Early morning, before betting opens | At the moment the race goes off |
| Source | Bookmaker forecast or punter's estimate | Actual SP bet at the course |
| Accuracy | Educated guess; can be significantly wrong | Reflects actual betting volume; most reliable |
| Volatility | Fixed until market opens | Changes throughout the day |
| Purpose | Market prediction; value identification | Official odds for settling bets |
| Reliability | Moderate; subject to trader error | High; reflects actual market consensus |
A tissue price is a prediction made before the market opens. A bookmaker's tissue for a horse might be 5/1, but if significant money backs that horse during the day, the price shortens to 3/1 by post time. Conversely, if the horse receives no support, it might drift to 7/1 or 10/1.
The starting price is the actual odds at which bets are matched when the race begins. This is the definitive price for settling bets placed at the course. For punters betting with online bookmakers, the starting price is often the odds offered in the minutes before the race begins.
The relationship between tissue and starting price is crucial for value betting. If you create a tissue and price a horse at 4/1, but it's available at 6/1 at the bookmaker, that's a value bet—you're getting better odds than your analysis suggests it should be. Conversely, if it's available at 2/1, it's a poor bet by your assessment.
Tissue Price vs Morning Line
The morning line is a term primarily used in American horse racing and refers to the early odds posted by track oddsmakers. It's very similar to a tissue price in concept: it's an early forecast of where odds should be.
In UK racing, the distinction is subtle. A tissue price is typically what a bookmaker publishes; a morning line is what an official track oddsmaker publishes. Both are early forecasts, both are subject to change, and both serve the same purpose: to give bettors an early indication of how the market might price a race.
For practical purposes, UK bettors should treat tissue prices and morning lines as equivalent—both are early odds forecasts that often differ significantly from final starting prices.
Tissue Price vs Bookmaker Opening Odds
When a bookmaker publishes its opening odds on their website or app, these odds are usually based on the tissue price, but they're not identical. Here's why:
The tissue price is the trader's internal forecast—what they think the true odds should be. The opening odds are what the bookmaker actually publishes to the public. The bookmaker might adjust the tissue slightly for several reasons:
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To balance their book. If they've already taken significant bets on a horse from internal sources or overnight betting, they might widen its opening odds to discourage further money.
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To account for known betting patterns. If experience tells them that a particular type of horse will attract heavy betting, they might shorten its opening odds preemptively.
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To incorporate exchange prices. Modern bookmakers monitor betting exchange prices (Betfair, etc.) and might adjust their opening odds to stay competitive.
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To apply their margin. The opening odds include the bookmaker's vigorish, ensuring they profit regardless of the outcome.
In practice, the opening odds are usually close to the tissue price but not identical. As a punter creating your own tissue, you're trying to beat the opening odds—finding horses where the bookmaker's opening odds are less accurate than your forecast.
How Can You Use Tissue Prices to Find Value Bets?
Understanding Value in Betting
Value in betting is the cornerstone of long-term profitability. A value bet is one where the odds offered are better than the true probability of the outcome warrants. Conversely, a bad bet is one where the odds are worse than the true probability.
Here's a concrete example. Suppose you've analysed a horse thoroughly and concluded it has a 25% chance of winning. The odds that correspond to a 25% probability are 3/1 (because 100 / 25 = 4, and 4 - 1 = 3). If the bookmaker is offering 4/1 for this horse, you have a value bet—you're getting better odds than your analysis suggests. If the bookmaker is offering 2/1, it's a poor bet—you're getting worse odds than the horse's true chances warrant.
Over a large sample of bets, consistently finding value bets leads to profit. This is the mathematical basis of professional betting. You don't need to pick winners more often than the odds suggest; you just need to consistently get better odds than the true probability warrants.
The formula for expected value is: EV = (Probability of Winning × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Stake)
For a 25% probability horse at 3/1 odds (4/1 in decimal), with a £10 stake:
- EV = (0.25 × £30) - (0.75 × £10) = £7.50 - £7.50 = £0
For the same horse at 4/1 odds (5/1 in decimal):
- EV = (0.25 × £40) - (0.75 × £10) = £10 - £7.50 = £2.50
The second bet has a positive expected value of £2.50, making it a value bet worth placing.
The Tissue Price Comparison Strategy
This is where creating your own tissue becomes practical. Here's the step-by-step process:
Step 1: Create your tissue for the race. Use one of the methods described earlier to price every horse in the race.
Step 2: Compare your tissue to bookmaker odds. For each horse, check what the bookmaker is offering. Look for discrepancies.
Step 3: Identify overpriced horses. If the bookmaker's odds are longer than your tissue suggests, the horse is overpriced—it's a potential value bet. For example:
- Your tissue: Horse A at 4/1
- Bookmaker odds: Horse A at 6/1
- This is a value bet; back it.
Step 4: Identify underpriced horses. If the bookmaker's odds are shorter than your tissue suggests, the horse is underpriced—avoid it. For example:
- Your tissue: Horse B at 5/1
- Bookmaker odds: Horse B at 2/1
- This is not a value bet; pass on it.
Step 5: Place bets on overpriced horses. Bet on horses where you've identified value. The larger the discrepancy between your tissue and the bookmaker's odds, the greater the value.
This process is simple but requires discipline. You must stick to your tissue and not be swayed by hunches or tips. Your tissue represents your best analysis; the bookmaker's odds represent the market's consensus. When they diverge, and you believe your analysis is superior, that's your edge.
When to Bet Based on Your Tissue
Not every overpriced horse is worth betting. Here are guidelines for deciding when to place a bet:
Confidence level. Only bet when you're confident in your tissue. If you're uncertain about a horse's ability, your tissue is unreliable, and any apparent value is illusory.
Minimum value threshold. Set a minimum value threshold—perhaps you only bet when the bookmaker's odds are at least 20% longer than your tissue. This prevents betting on marginal value where the potential profit doesn't justify the risk.
Sample size. Remember that a single bet doesn't prove anything. You're playing a long-term game. Even if a value bet loses, it was the right decision if the odds were favourable. Conversely, a bet without value that wins is still a bad decision.
Bankroll management. Size your bets appropriately. If you have £1,000 to bet, you might stake £10-£20 per bet, allowing you to place 50-100 bets before your bankroll is depleted. This gives your edge time to manifest.
Emotional discipline. This is the hardest part. When your tissue says a horse is overpriced at 6/1 but you have a hunch it's going to lose, you must trust your tissue and place the bet anyway. Conversely, when you have a strong feeling about a horse but your tissue says it's underpriced, you must pass. Emotions are the enemy of value betting.
What Are Common Misconceptions About Tissue Prices?
"Tissue Prices Are Always Accurate"
This is perhaps the most dangerous misconception. Tissue prices are educated guesses, not certainties. Even professional traders, with years of experience and sophisticated data, frequently misprice horses. A tissue price can be significantly wrong for several reasons:
Incomplete information. A trader might not know that a horse has had a subtle change in training or that a jockey has been practicing a new riding style. Form analysis is always incomplete.
Bias. Traders are human and subject to cognitive biases. They might consistently overprice horses of a certain type or underprice horses from certain trainers.
Market shocks. Unexpected news—a horse's sudden injury, a jockey's illness, a change in track conditions—can render a tissue completely inaccurate within minutes of publication.
Overround. Because tissues include a built-in margin (overround), the odds are intentionally slightly worse than the true probability. This margin is the bookmaker's profit, but it also means tissues systematically undervalue horses slightly.
The key insight is that tissue prices are starting points, not final answers. They're useful for comparison and analysis, but they're not infallible.
"You Need Complex Formulas to Create Tissues"
This misconception deters many punters from creating their own tissues. In reality, simple methods work surprisingly well. You don't need regression analysis, machine learning, or complex weightings. A straightforward rating-based method or a simple probability assessment can be just as effective as an elaborate formula.
The reason is that betting markets are relatively efficient. If a simple method could consistently beat the market, it would quickly be arbitraged away. The fact that simple methods sometimes work is because they're based on sound analysis—understanding form, track conditions, and horse ability—rather than because of mathematical sophistication.
Many professional punters use simple tissues. They might spend hours analysing form, but their tissue creation itself is straightforward. The hard work is in the analysis, not in the formula.
"Tissue Prices Guarantee Profits"
This is the most important misconception to dispel. A tissue price is a tool, not a guarantee. Creating tissues and betting on value is a strategy with a positive expected value, but it doesn't guarantee short-term profits. You can make all the right decisions and still lose money in the short term due to variance.
Consider flipping a coin that's slightly biased in your favour (55% heads, 45% tails). You have a mathematical edge, but you could easily flip it 10 times and get 6 tails, losing money in the short term. Similarly, you could create perfect tissues and lose money over 10 or 20 races due to bad luck.
Long-term profitability requires two things: a genuine edge (your tissues are better than the market's pricing) and a large sample size (enough bets for the edge to manifest). Without both, you're not guaranteed to profit. Many punters with sound tissue-creation methods still lose money because they don't bet enough or because their edge isn't as large as they think.
What Is the Future of Tissue Prices in Modern Betting?
Technology and Automated Tissue Creation
The betting industry is increasingly automated. Software now exists that can create tissue prices in seconds, incorporating form data, speed ratings, track conditions, and dozens of other variables. Tools like the Inform Racing Betting Tissue Tool allow punters to input their preferred form criteria, and the software automatically generates odds for every horse in a race.
This automation has several implications:
Democratization. Punters who previously lacked the time or expertise to create tissues can now use software to do it for them. This has democratized access to tissue-creation tools.
Increased efficiency. Traders and punters can now create tissues for dozens of races in minutes, rather than spending hours on analysis.
Reduced edge. As more people use automated tools, the edge from tissue-based value betting diminishes. If everyone is using the same software with the same inputs, no one has an advantage. The edge comes from having better inputs or better analysis, not from using the tool itself.
Sophistication. Professional bettors are increasingly using machine learning and AI to create tissues. These systems can identify patterns in form data and market behaviour that humans miss. As this technology becomes more prevalent, the bar for competing as an amateur punter rises.
The future likely involves a tiered market: professional bettors using sophisticated AI systems, serious amateurs using good software with custom inputs, and casual punters either using simple methods or not creating tissues at all.
Tissue Prices in Betting Exchanges
Betting exchanges like Betfair have changed the dynamics of tissue pricing. On an exchange, you can lay bets (bet against a horse winning) as well as back bets (bet on a horse winning). This creates a different market dynamic than traditional bookmakers.
Exchange prices often differ from bookmaker tissue prices because they reflect the collective opinion of thousands of bettors rather than a single trader's forecast. In theory, exchange prices should be more accurate than bookmaker tissues because they incorporate more information and perspectives. In practice, exchange prices are sometimes more accurate and sometimes less accurate, depending on the liquidity and composition of bettors on the exchange.
For punters creating tissues, the existence of exchanges is valuable. You can compare your tissue not just against bookmaker odds but also against exchange odds. If your tissue suggests a horse is worth 4/1 but it's available at 5/1 on an exchange, that's value. You can then decide whether to back it at the exchange or wait for better odds at a bookmaker.
The ability to lay bets on exchanges also changes tissue strategy. A traditional punter might create a tissue and only look for overpriced horses to back. An exchange bettor might also look for underpriced horses to lay, betting against them. This requires different analysis—instead of asking "is this horse overpriced to back?", you're asking "is this horse underpriced to lay?"
The future of tissue prices likely involves greater integration with exchange pricing. Punters will create tissues and compare them not just against bookmaker odds but against the full landscape of available odds across multiple platforms, backing and laying as appropriate.
Frequently Asked Questions About Tissue Prices
Q: What's the difference between a tissue price and a starting price?
A: A tissue price is an early forecast made before betting opens, while a starting price is the actual odds at which bets are matched when the race begins. Tissue prices are predictions; starting prices are reality. Tissue prices often differ significantly from starting prices because they don't account for the actual betting volume that occurs during the day.
Q: Can I use tissue prices to make money betting?
A: Yes, but only if your tissue prices are more accurate than the market's pricing. If you can consistently create tissues that better forecast true winning chances than bookmakers' odds reflect, you can find value bets and profit over time. However, this requires skill, discipline, and a large sample size.
Q: How long does it take to create a tissue for a race?
A: Using a simple method, 5-15 minutes per race. Using software, 30 seconds to a few minutes. Using a complex analysis, 30 minutes to an hour. The time depends on your method and how thoroughly you analyse the race.
Q: Do I need special software to create a tissue?
A: No. A spreadsheet and basic form analysis are sufficient. Software like the Inform Racing Betting Tissue Tool can speed up the process and add sophistication, but it's not necessary. Many successful punters create tissues using only a pen and paper.
Q: What's the overround in a tissue?
A: The overround is the built-in margin that ensures the bookmaker profits. If the probabilities of all outcomes add up to 105% instead of 100%, the overround is 5%. This margin is the bookmaker's profit on the race. When creating your own tissue, you should include a margin (typically 5-10%) to price like a bookmaker.
Q: How accurate do tissue prices need to be to make money?
A: You don't need to be very accurate. If your tissues are even slightly more accurate than the market's pricing, you can find value bets. The key is consistency—over a large sample of bets, small edges compound into significant profits. Even a 2-3% edge can be profitable if you place enough bets.
Q: Should I bet on every horse where I find value?
A: No. Set a minimum value threshold—perhaps you only bet when the bookmaker's odds are at least 20% longer than your tissue. This ensures you're only betting on significant value, not marginal discrepancies that might be due to analysis error.
Q: Can tissue prices help me find value on betting exchanges?
A: Absolutely. Exchange prices often differ from bookmaker prices. If your tissue suggests a horse is worth 4/1 but it's available at 5/1 on an exchange, that's value. You can also look for underpriced horses to lay on exchanges.
Q: How do I know if my tissue is accurate?
A: Track your results over time. Compare your tissue prices to actual starting prices and outcomes. If your tissues consistently misprice certain types of horses, adjust your method. Over a large sample, you should see whether your tissues are more accurate than the market's pricing.
Q: What's the relationship between tissue prices and morning lines?
A: In UK racing, the terms are largely synonymous. Both refer to early odds forecasts made before the market opens. In American racing, the morning line is an official track oddsmaker's forecast, while tissues are typically bookmaker forecasts. For practical purposes, treat them as equivalent.