Goalscorer betting is one of football's most exciting markets — tying your fortunes to a specific player finding the net. Understanding the three main variants and how to select winners statistically gives you an edge over casual bettors.
The Three Goalscorer Markets
First Goalscorer
Your player must score the opening goal. Odds typically range from 5.00 to 15.00. If the match finishes 0-0, all first goalscorer bets are void and stakes returned.
Anytime Goalscorer
Your player scores at any point in 90 minutes. Odds typically range from 1.80 to 5.00. This is the most popular goalscorer market because it offers a realistic chance of winning without needing to predict timing.
Last Goalscorer
Your player scores the final goal. Similar odds to first goalscorer but harder to predict, as it depends on the full flow of the match.
Statistical Selection Methods
Shot Volume
Players who take more shots per game have more opportunities to score. A striker averaging 4.2 shots per 90 minutes has roughly twice the scoring probability of one averaging 2.1 shots, all else being equal.
Expected Goals (xG)
Expected goals measures the quality of chances a player receives. A player with 0.55 xG per 90 minutes is expected to score roughly every two games. Compare xG to actual goals — players underperforming their xG are due a correction upwards.
Set-Piece Threat
Players who attack set pieces — both free kicks and corners — have additional scoring routes beyond open play. Centre-backs who score from corners (3-5 goals per season for the best headers) can offer excellent anytime goalscorer value at odds of 8.00-12.00.
First Goalscorer Timing Patterns
- Approximately 30% of first goals come in the first 20 minutes
- The 25-35 minute window is historically the most productive period for first goals
- Teams that concede first goals early tend to repeat the pattern due to tactical setup issues
- Home teams score first in roughly 55% of matches across major European leagues
Staking and Value Assessment
A £10 anytime goalscorer bet on a player at 2.50 returns £25. But is that good value? If the player's underlying stats suggest a 45% scoring probability, fair odds would be 2.22. At 2.50 (implied 40%), the bookmaker is offering value.
Scorecast and Wincast
Scorecast combines first goalscorer with correct score (e.g., Salah to score first, Liverpool to win 2-1). Wincast combines anytime goalscorer with match result. Both offer substantially boosted odds but require multiple correct predictions, reducing win probability considerably.