Proposition bets — props — let you bet on specific events within an NFL game rather than the overall outcome. They range from statistical lines (Patrick Mahomes over 285.5 passing yards) to novelty markets (colour of the Super Bowl Gatorade shower).
Types of NFL Props
Player Props
Player props focus on individual performance metrics:
- Passing yards — over/under on a QB's total passing yards
- Passing touchdowns — over/under or exact number
- Rushing yards — primarily for running backs but also mobile QBs
- Receiving yards — for wide receivers and tight ends
- Anytime touchdown scorer — whether a specific player scores at any point
Game Props
Game props cover team-level or match-level events:
- First scoring method (touchdown, field goal, safety)
- Total sacks in the game
- Longest touchdown over/under
- Will there be overtime? (yes/no)
- Winning margin bands (1-6, 7-12, 13-18, 19+)
How to Find Value in Props
Props are set by bookmakers with less depth than main markets. This creates opportunities:
- Specialise in positions — become expert in QB passing lines or WR receiving props
- Check snap counts — a player's expected playing time directly affects their statistical output
- Monitor injury reports — a missing cornerback boosts WR receiving props against that defence
- Weather matters — wind and rain suppress passing yards and boost rushing attempts
Super Bowl Props
The Super Bowl generates hundreds of unique prop markets. Beyond standard player and game props, expect:
- Coin toss: heads or tails (true 50/50 minus the margin)
- National anthem: over/under on duration in seconds
- First commercial: which brand airs first
- Gatorade colour: what colour liquid is poured on the winning coach
These novelty props carry margins of 10-20%, making them entertainment rather than value propositions.
Bankroll Management for Props
Props can be addictive because of the sheer volume of available bets. A single NFL Sunday offers hundreds of player prop lines.
Getting Started
Start with one or two prop types you understand well. Quarterback passing yards is a good entry point because the data is widely available and the market is relatively liquid. Track your results, refine your approach, and only expand to other prop types once you have a proven edge.