A staking plan answers the question: how much should you bet? It is entirely separate from what you bet on. Even with an edge in selection, poor staking can destroy a bankroll. Conversely, disciplined staking protects you during inevitable losing periods.
Flat Staking
The simplest approach: bet the same amount on every selection.
How it works: Set a fixed stake — typically 1-5% of your starting bankroll. Bet that amount on every selection regardless of odds or confidence level.
Example: £1,000 bankroll, 2% flat stake = £20 per bet.
Pros: Simple, consistent, easy to track. Removes emotion from stake sizing. Cons: Doesn't account for varying edge or confidence levels. Doesn't grow with your bankroll.
Percentage Staking
Bet a fixed percentage of your current (not starting) bankroll.
How it works: If your bankroll is £1,000 and you stake 2%, your first bet is £20. If you win and your bankroll grows to £1,050, your next bet is £21.
Pros: Stakes grow with success and shrink during losses — mathematically impossible to go completely bust. Cons: After losses, reduced stakes make recovery slower.
The Kelly Criterion
Kelly calculates the mathematically optimal stake to maximise long-term bankroll growth.
Formula: Stake % = (bp - q) / b
Where b = decimal odds - 1, p = your estimated probability, q = 1 - p.
Example: You estimate a selection at 55% probability, odds are 2.10. b = 1.10, p = 0.55, q = 0.45 Stake % = (1.10 × 0.55 - 0.45) / 1.10 = 0.145 / 1.10 = 13.2% of bankroll
Fractional Kelly
Full Kelly is extremely volatile. Most serious bettors use:
- Half Kelly: 50% of the Kelly-recommended stake
- Quarter Kelly: 25% of the Kelly-recommended stake
Quarter Kelly sacrifices some theoretical growth for dramatically reduced variance.
Confidence-Based Staking
Vary your stake based on how confident you are in each selection.
How it works: Assign 1-5 point ratings to each bet, with corresponding stake sizes (e.g., 1 point = 1% bankroll, 5 points = 5% bankroll).
Pros: Allocates more capital to your strongest selections. Cons: Requires honest self-assessment. Most bettors overestimate their confidence accuracy.
Staking Plans to Avoid
Martingale (Doubling After Losses)
Double your stake after each loss. Mathematically guaranteed to fail given finite bankrolls and betting limits. A 10-bet losing streak at £10 starting stake requires a £10,240 bet to recover.
All-In Strategies
Staking your entire bankroll on a single bet maximises variance and guarantees eventual ruin.
Choosing Your Plan
For beginners: flat staking at 2% of bankroll. For intermediate bettors with proven edge: percentage staking at 1-3%. For advanced bettors with accurate probability estimates: Quarter Kelly. The best staking plan is the one you will follow consistently.