Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs

The Cubs won 6-4 on Sunday against the St. Louis Cardinals to salvage the finale of a weekend series after being outscored 20-1 in the first two games. Since July 1, Chicago has gone 2-1 with a 23-3 demolition of San Diego, a 1-17 loss to St. Louis, and a 0-3 shutout before Sunday's bounce-back win (last 5 matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, per Betmana data).

Baltimore took two of three from the Reds in Cincinnati over the weekend, winning 3-0 on Friday and 8-5 on Saturday before dropping Sunday's finale 3-2. The Orioles had won three straight before that loss (last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss).

The Cubs have dominated this interleague rivalry, winning 14 of 19 meetings since 2014. Baltimore has won five. The teams last met in 2025, when Chicago won 1-0. The highest-scoring encounter was an 8-9 affair in 2017.

Cubs: Left-hander Matthew Boyd (3-1, 5.08 ERA) makes his eighth start of the season. He last pitched on Tuesday, June 30, going five innings and allowing three runs against the San Diego Padres. Boyd is 1-1 with a 4.83 ERA in six career starts covering 31.2 innings against Baltimore. The Cubs are without several key arms: Justin Steele (elbow, out until 2027), Jameson Taillon (hamstring, expected back July 17), and Edward Cabrera (hamstring, July 26) are among 15 players on the injured list.

Orioles: Right-hander Shane Baz (4-8, 4.19 ERA) takes the mound. He's winless in his last three starts but earned a no-decision on June 29, holding the Chicago White Sox to two runs over seven innings. Baz has 87 strikeouts in 101 innings this season. He has faced the Cubs once, allowing five runs in 2.1 innings in a 2025 loss while with Tampa Bay. Baltimore's bullpen is depleted: closer Félix Bautista (shoulder, out until September), Zach Eflin (elbow, out until 2027), Chris Bassitt (back, July 30), and Ryan Helsley (elbow, July 16) are all on the IL.

Boyd relies on limiting free passes (10 walks in 33.2 innings) and keeping the ball in the yard. Baz generates swing-and-miss stuff (87 Ks in 101 IP) but has received poor run support — the Orioles have scored just 57 runs in his 17 starts (3.35 per game).

Baltimore's offence has been inconsistent, scoring more than four runs in only two of their last nine games heading into Tuesday. The Cubs' lineup has been sparked by Pete Crow-Armstrong, who entered the series batting .292 with 19 home runs and 49 RBIs, and has hit safely in six consecutive games.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC): The centre fielder is on a six-game hitting streak (9-for-19) and leads the Cubs in batting average among regulars. He went 2-for-4 with a steal and a run in Sunday's win.

Pete Alonso (BAL): The first baseman has been Baltimore's most consistent power threat with 19 home runs and 60 RBIs. He went 4-for-11 in the weekend series at Cincinnati.

Shane Baz (BAL): The right-hander has been Baltimore's most reliable starter in terms of strikeout stuff, but the lack of run support (57 runs across his 17 starts) makes his starts tight. He threw seven innings of two-run ball in his last outing.

The Cubs opened as slight favourites (-118) at DraftKings, with the Orioles at -102. The total is set at 9.5 runs. The OVER has hit in 50 of Baltimore's 91 games this season (50-38-3) and in 49 of Chicago's 90 (49-40-1).

Baz's run-support issue combined with Boyd's control-heavy approach points toward a potentially low-scoring early innings. However, both teams' bullpens are thinned by injuries, which could matter late. The Cubs have won six of their last seven road games.

This is a matchup of a Cubs team that has been hot on the road (6-1 in last seven away) against an Orioles side that has dropped two of three in each of its last three home series. Boyd's ability to work efficiently against a scuffling Baltimore lineup and Baz's history of minimal run support suggest a tight, low-to-mid scoring affair. The Cubs' edge in recent road form and the head-to-head history (14-5) gives Chicago a narrow advantage.