Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

The Yankees have owned this matchup in 2026. New York is 7-2 against the Orioles, including 4-1 in Baltimore. Six of the nine meetings have gone over 8 total runs. The teams last met in May, when the Yankees took four of five at Yankee Stadium and then split a two-game set in Baltimore.

Gerrit Cole (15 GS, 6-6, 3.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP)

Cole returned from Tommy John surgery this season and has been sharp since shaking off early rust. Over his last four starts, the 35-year-old has allowed only four earned runs across 24.2 innings (1.46 ERA). He ranks in the 73rd percentile or better in xERA (3.37), strikeout rate (26.1%) and walk rate (5.4%), per Baseball Savant. His 1.97 BB/9 is elite. The concern: Cole's 40th-percentile barrel rate (8.1%) and 18th-percentile hard-hit rate (42.7%) mean he can get burned when he leaves pitches over the plate. The Yankees have lost four of his last seven starts despite his strong personal numbers.

Kyle Bradish (25 GS, 7-11, 3.65 ERA, 1.37 WHIP)

Bradish has been solid over the past two months, allowing two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six outings. The Orioles have won four of those six. But his underlying numbers give reason for caution: a 4.01 xFIP, 47th-percentile or worse ratings in xERA (4.09) and strikeout rate (22.1%), and a walk rate of 10.3% that ranks near the bottom of the league. Bradish has worse numbers at Camden Yards (4.53 xFIP, 20.4% K-rate, 1.06 HR/9) than on the road (3.59 xFIP, 23.3% K-rate, 0.73 HR/9). He started twice against the Yankees in May, coughing up 5 ER with 2 HR and 4 BB in one of those outings.

Yankees (projected): 1. Trent Grisham (L) CF, 2. Ben Rice (L) DH, 3. Heliot Ramos (R) LF, 4. Luis García Jr. (L) 1B, 5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B, 6. George Lombard Jr. (R) SS, 7. Spencer Jones (L) RF, 8. Austin Wells (L) C, 9. José Caballero (R) 3B.

Orioles (projected): 1. Jackson Holliday (L) 2B, 2. Pete Alonso (R) 1B, 3. Gunnar Henderson (L) SS, 4. Samuel Basallo (L) DH, 5. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R) 3B, 6. Dylan Beavers (L) LF, 7. Leody Taveras (S) RF, 8. Colton Cowser (L) CF, 9. Carlos Narváez (R) C.

Pete Alonso (BAL) — Riding an 11-game hitting streak (20-for-42, .476) with 6 HR and 11 RBI. He has homered off Cole in his career and is the engine of the Orioles' lineup.

Ben Rice (NYY) — 4-for-10 with 1 HR in his career against Bradish. The Yankees' DH has 34 homers this season and provides the middle-of-order power the team needs without Judge.

Jackson Holliday (BAL) — The rookie second baseman stole home in the series opener on Wednesday, showing the aggressive baserunning Baltimore needs to manufacture runs against elite pitching.

The Yankees sit five games back of the first-place Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East (76-51) but hold a comfortable lead for the top Wild Card spot. A sweep would keep them within striking distance of the division lead while further denting Baltimore's playoff hopes. The Orioles entered this series in possession of the final Wild Card spot but now trail the Twins by 1.5 games. A loss tonight would drop them 2.5 games back with just over a month to play.

The Yankees enter as slight road favourites (-120 moneyline) with the total set at 8.0 runs. Given the season series trends — six of nine meetings have hit the over — and Bradish's home splits, the over (8.0) offers a compelling angle. However, both starters are in strong recent form, and Cole's elite control could keep the Yankees in control early. The Orioles' bullpen fragility (7th-worst xFIP over the last week) is a factor if Bradish exits early.

Can Bradish keep the ball in the yard against a Yankees lineup that, while scuffling overall, has power threats like Rice (34 HR) and García Jr.? If Bradish's home-run suppression holds (0.88 HR/9 this season), Baltimore has a path. If not, Cole's dominance makes the sweep likely.