Championship· Season 2025
Match Summary
Stoke City defeated Derby 3:1. The match was played in Championship 2025. Goals were scored by C. Morris 60′, L. Baker 70′, D. Mubama 90′, S. Thomas 90′. 3 yellow cards were shown. Stoke City had 68% possession while Derby held 32%. Stoke City had 12 shots (7 on target) compared to 3 (2 on target) for Derby. Expected goals: Stoke City 1.09 — Derby 0.39. Stoke City made 4 substitutions, Derby made 3.
Match Events
Key match events between Stoke City and Derby — 4 goals and 3 cards recorded during the match.
assist: C. Blackett-Taylor
assist: T. Seko
assist: J. Donley
Match Statistics
Stoke City had 68% possession against Derby's 32%. Stoke City registered 12 shots (7 on target) while Derby managed 3 (2 on target). Corner kicks: 7–3. Fouls committed: 12–14.
Rivalry since 2012
Stoke City vs Derby Head to Head Results· 13
Stoke City and Derby have met 13 times — Stoke City won 4, Derby won 5, with 4 draws. Their rivalry dates back to 2012. Derby leads the head-to-head with 5 victories from 13 meetings. A combined 28 goals have been scored across these fixtures, averaging 2.15 per match (11 for the home side, 17 for the visitors). Both teams scored in 5 matches (38%). Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 games (54%), making it a fixture that tends to produce goals. The highest-scoring encounter finished 4–0 in 2020.
Recent Meetings
Recent Form
In their last 6 matches, Stoke City have recorded 0 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats. Derby show 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from their last 6 outings.
Betting Odds & Historical Data
Opening pre-match odds recorded for this fixture at the time it was played. These are historical figures for analytical reference only and do not reflect any current market.
Historical data only — not for betting
This data is sourced from football-data.co.uk and covers historical match results and pre-match odds. These figures do not represent current or live odds and cannot be used for placing bets. Betting is not possible on this website. Provided for analytical and research purposes only.
Goals in This Fixture
How many goals these two teams typically produce when they meet, based on their historical encounters.
2.4
Average goals per game
60%
Games with 3+ goals
50%
Both teams scored
Head-to-Head Record
Even recordHistorical results between these two teams — showing who has dominated this fixture and whether the current odds reflect that pattern.
Potential Betting Value Detected
Historical win rate (60%) differs significantly from the market-implied probability (40%) — the odds may underestimate Stoke City.
Historical results between these two teams. Bold odds show which outcome was backed by the market — compare against the actual result to assess predictability of this fixture over time.
Market Summary
Margin: 5.5%Implied win probabilities calculated from pre-match odds across multiple sources. A higher percentage means the market considered that outcome more likely. Compare these against your own assessment to spot potential value.
Implied Probability
Odds Range
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| Max | 2.36 | 3.20 | 3.29 |
Market Consensus
Professional markets (sharp bookmakers) reflect sharp money and are harder to beat. Public markets are softer. When the two disagree significantly (highlighted in amber), it may indicate a mispriced line worth investigating.
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Professional market | 40.3% | 30.7% | 28.9% |
| Public market | 41.0% | 29.5% | 29.5% |
| Δ | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
Stoke City vs Derby — margin-removed probabilities
Result vs. Market
Result matched market prediction
Match Statistics
Actual in-game statistics recorded for this match. Shots on target is a strong indicator of attacking pressure and correlates well with expected goals.
Home Record / Away Record
Aggregated season statistics from all available historical data. Use these to assess each team's overall form, scoring frequency, and tendency for high-scoring matches.
Home Record: Stoke City
Away Record: Derby
Data: football-data.co.uk
Statistics are for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
API data: 12 May 2026