29 January 2023 at 13:30
Betting Odds & Historical Data
Opening pre-match odds recorded for this fixture at the time it was played. These are historical figures for analytical reference only and do not reflect any current market.
Historical data only — not for betting
This data is sourced from football-data.co.uk and covers historical match results and pre-match odds. These figures do not represent current or live odds and cannot be used for placing bets. Betting is not possible on this website. Provided for analytical and research purposes only.
Head-to-Head Record
Ajax dominatesHistorical results between these two teams — showing who has dominated this fixture and whether the current odds reflect that pattern.
Goals in This Fixture
How many goals these two teams typically produce when they meet, based on their historical encounters.
5.1
Average goals per game
100%
Games with 3+ goals
100%
Both teams scored
Market Summary
Margin: 5.6%Implied win probabilities calculated from pre-match odds across multiple sources. A higher percentage means the market considered that outcome more likely. Compare these against your own assessment to spot potential value.
Implied Probability
Odds Range
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min | 9.77 | 5.80 | 1.24 |
| Max | 11.00 | 6.95 | 1.26 |
Market Consensus
Professional markets (sharp bookmakers) reflect sharp money and are harder to beat. Public markets are softer. When the two disagree significantly (highlighted in amber), it may indicate a mispriced line worth investigating.
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Professional market | 9.8% | 13.8% | 76.3% |
| Public market | 8.6% | 15.8% | 75.6% |
| Δ | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
Excelsior vs Ajax — margin-removed probabilities
Result vs. Market
Result matched market prediction
Match Statistics
Actual in-game statistics recorded for this match. Shots on target is a strong indicator of attacking pressure and correlates well with expected goals.
Head-to-Head History
Historical results between these two teams. Bold odds show which outcome was backed by the market — compare against the actual result to assess predictability of this fixture over time.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Avg. odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2625/26 | Excelsior | 2–2 | Ajax | 4.20/3.90/1.75 |
| 22/11/2525/26 | Ajax | 1–2 | Excelsior | 1.36/5.53/7.20 |
| 24/04/2423/24 | Ajax | 2–2 | Excelsior | 1.28/5.92/9.57 |
| 19/08/2323/24 | Excelsior | 2–2 | Ajax | 9.68/6.35/1.23 |
| 29/01/2322/23 | Excelsior | 1–4 | Ajax | 10.59/6.25/1.25 |
| 16/10/2222/23 | Ajax | 7–1 | Excelsior | 1.05/13.29/30.70 |
| 13/04/1918/19 | Ajax | 6–2 | Excelsior | 1.07/11.85/28.89 |
| 11/11/1818/19 | Excelsior | 1–7 | Ajax | 15.32/7.67/1.15 |
| 14/12/1717/18 | Ajax | 3–1 | Excelsior | 1.09/10.99/21.47 |
| 06/05/1817/18 | Excelsior | 1–2 | Ajax | 8.25/5.13/1.32 |
Home Record / Away Record
Aggregated season statistics from all available historical data. Use these to assess each team's overall form, scoring frequency, and tendency for high-scoring matches.
Home Record: Excelsior
Away Record: Ajax
Data: football-data.co.uk
Match Summary
Ajax defeated Excelsior 4:1. The match was played in Eredivisie 2022. Goals were scored by D. Tadić 15′ (pen.), R. El Yaakoubi 36′, D. Klaassen 45′, M. Kudus 61′, D. Rensch 83′. 2 yellow cards were shown. Excelsior had 21% possession while Ajax held 79%. Excelsior had 12 shots (4 on target) compared to 19 (9 on target) for Ajax. Excelsior made 3 substitutions, Ajax made 2.
Match Events
Key match events between Excelsior and Ajax — 5 goals and 2 cards recorded during the match.
Penalty
assist: C. Driouech
assist: D. Tadić
assist: Francisco Conceição
Match Statistics
Excelsior had 21% possession against Ajax's 79%. Excelsior registered 12 shots (4 on target) while Ajax managed 19 (9 on target). Corner kicks: 6–7. Fouls committed: 9–5.
Lineups
Excelsior lined up in a 5-4-1 formation under M. Dijkhuizen, while Ajax deployed a 4-1-4-1 under J. Heitinga.
Squad Ratings
The overall squad rating for Excelsior is 7.44, compared to 6.86 for Ajax. This metric is derived from each player's average match rating across all league appearances this season — anything above 7.00 is considered strong, while below 6.50 signals inconsistency. Excelsior's highest-rated starter is S. van Gassel (7.44), while Ajax's best-rated player is S. Berghuis (7.29).
Attacking Output
The starting XI of Excelsior have contributed 0 goals and 1 assists this season, led by —. Ajax's starters account for 13 goals and 8 assists, spearheaded by D. Klaassen (6G). Goals reflect clinical finishing and chance creation, while assists highlight the ability to unlock defences through through-balls, crosses, and set pieces.
Defensive Solidity
Excelsior deploy 5 defenders rated — on average, against Ajax's 4-man backline averaging 6.63. Higher defensive ratings suggest better positional awareness, fewer individual errors, and a greater likelihood of keeping clean sheets. The rating accounts for tackles won, interceptions, aerial duels, and blocks throughout the season.
Midfield Control
Excelsior field 4 midfielders averaging —, versus Ajax's 5 rated 7.02. Midfield ratings reflect passing accuracy, interceptions, key passes, and overall control of possession — the team that dominates midfield typically dictates the tempo and territory of the match.
Forward Threat
Excelsior start 1 forward(s) averaging —, compared to 1 for Ajax averaging —. Forward ratings capture shot accuracy, movement off the ball, dribbling success, and involvement in build-up play — they indicate who carries the greater goal threat on the day.
Passing & Build-Up
Passing accuracy averages 58% for Excelsior and 84% for Ajax. Higher passing accuracy generally indicates a possession-based style with patient build-up through the thirds, while lower figures may suggest a more direct, counter-attacking approach with long balls and quick transitions.
Discipline
Excelsior's starters have collected 0 yellow cards this season, compared to 9 for Ajax. Yellow cards reflect how aggressively a team presses and tackles — a high count may indicate a physical, high-pressing style but also risks suspensions and late free-kicks in dangerous areas.
Age & Experience
The average age of Excelsior's starting XI is 29.0 (youngest: S. van Gassel (29), oldest: S. van Gassel (29)), while Ajax average 27.4 (youngest: D. Rensch (22), oldest: S. Berghuis (34)). Younger squads typically offer pace, energy, and pressing intensity, while experienced lineups bring composure, game management, and the ability to handle high-pressure moments.
Squad Depth
Excelsior's starters average 28 league appearances each, versus 15 for Ajax. High appearance counts indicate an established, well-drilled unit that the manager trusts week in and week out. Lower figures may suggest rotation, injuries, or emerging players still earning their place in the team.
Substitutes
Coach: M. Dijkhuizen
Substitutes
Coach: J. Heitinga
Recent Form
In their last 6 matches, Excelsior have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats. Ajax show 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from their last 6 outings.
Excelsior
Ajax
Excelsior vs Ajax Head to Head Results
Excelsior and Ajax have met 19 times — Excelsior won 1, Ajax won 13, with 5 draws. Their rivalry dates back to 2010. Ajax leads the head-to-head with 13 victories from 19 meetings. A combined 76 goals have been scored across these fixtures, averaging 4.00 per match (20 for the home side, 56 for the visitors). Both teams scored in 14 matches (74%). Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 games (74%), making it a fixture that tends to produce goals. Excelsior are currently unbeaten in the last 4 meetings. The highest-scoring encounter finished 7–1 in 2022.
1
Excelsior
5
Drawn
13
Ajax
Recent Meetings (19)
API data: 15 Mar 2026