27 April 2021 at 18:00
Betting Odds & Historical Data
Opening pre-match odds recorded for this fixture at the time it was played. These are historical figures for analytical reference only and do not reflect any current market.
Historical data only — not for betting
This data is sourced from football-data.co.uk and covers historical match results and pre-match odds. These figures do not represent current or live odds and cannot be used for placing bets. Betting is not possible on this website. Provided for analytical and research purposes only.
Head-to-Head Record
Exeter City dominatesHistorical results between these two teams — showing who has dominated this fixture and whether the current odds reflect that pattern.
Goals in This Fixture
How many goals these two teams typically produce when they meet, based on their historical encounters.
2.4
Average goals per game
50%
Games with 3+ goals
40%
Both teams scored
Potential Betting Value Detected
Historical win rate (40%) differs significantly from the market-implied probability (55%) — the odds may underestimate Grimsby.
Market Summary
Margin: 5.5%Implied win probabilities calculated from pre-match odds across multiple sources. A higher percentage means the market considered that outcome more likely. Compare these against your own assessment to spot potential value.
Implied Probability
Odds Range
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| Max | 1.75 | 3.75 | 5.11 |
Market Consensus
Professional markets (sharp bookmakers) reflect sharp money and are harder to beat. Public markets are softer. When the two disagree significantly (highlighted in amber), it may indicate a mispriced line worth investigating.
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Professional market | 55.2% | 25.9% | 18.9% |
| Public market | 55.5% | 25.4% | 19.1% |
Exeter City vs Grimsby — margin-removed probabilities
Result vs. Market
Result matched market prediction
Match Statistics
Actual in-game statistics recorded for this match. Shots on target is a strong indicator of attacking pressure and correlates well with expected goals.
Head-to-Head History
Historical results between these two teams. Bold odds show which outcome was backed by the market — compare against the actual result to assess predictability of this fixture over time.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Avg. odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2120/21 | Exeter City | 3–2 | Grimsby | 1.72/3.66/4.97 |
| 01/12/2020/21 | Grimsby | 1–4 | Exeter City | 3.98/3.52/1.94 |
| 18/01/2019/20 | Grimsby | 0–1 | Exeter City | 3.45/3.36/2.20 |
| 28/09/1919/20 | Exeter City | 1–3 | Grimsby | 1.82/3.91/4.28 |
| 29/12/1818/19 | Exeter City | 1–2 | Grimsby | 1.84/3.60/4.28 |
| 20/10/1818/19 | Grimsby | 0–0 | Exeter City | 3.45/3.42/2.17 |
| 24/02/1817/18 | Grimsby | 0–1 | Exeter City | 2.57/3.42/2.81 |
| 11/11/1717/18 | Exeter City | 2–0 | Grimsby | 1.95/3.73/3.80 |
| 08/10/1616/17 | Exeter City | 0–0 | Grimsby | 3.16/3.31/2.40 |
| 14/01/1716/17 | Grimsby | 0–3 | Exeter City | 2.53/3.41/2.89 |
Home Record / Away Record
Aggregated season statistics from all available historical data. Use these to assess each team's overall form, scoring frequency, and tendency for high-scoring matches.
Home Record: Exeter City
Away Record: Grimsby
Data: football-data.co.uk
Match Summary
Exeter City defeated Grimsby 3:2. The match was played in League Two 2020. Goals were scored by L. Waterfall 33′ (o.g.), L. John-Lewis 41′ (pen.), J. Matete 58′, A. Fisher 83′, R. Bowman 88′. 2 yellow cards were shown, 1 red cards. Exeter City had 58% possession while Grimsby held 42%. Exeter City had 13 shots (4 on target) compared to 9 (6 on target) for Grimsby. Exeter City made 5 substitutions, Grimsby made 3.
Match Events
Key match events between Exeter City and Grimsby — 5 goals and 3 cards recorded during the match.
Own Goal
Penalty
assist: E. Khouri
assist: P. Sweeney
Match Statistics
Exeter City had 58% possession against Grimsby's 42%. Exeter City registered 13 shots (4 on target) while Grimsby managed 9 (6 on target). Corner kicks: 7–4. Fouls committed: 15–16.
Lineups
Exeter City lined up in a 4-5-1 formation under M. Taylor, while Grimsby deployed a 3-5-2 under P. Hurst.
Squad Ratings
The overall squad rating for Exeter City is 6.95, compared to 6.82 for Grimsby. This metric is derived from each player's average match rating across all league appearances this season — anything above 7.00 is considered strong, while below 6.50 signals inconsistency. Exeter City's highest-rated starter is P. Sweeney (6.95), while Grimsby's best-rated player is E. Khouri (6.82).
Attacking Output
The starting XI of Exeter City have contributed 2 goals and 0 assists this season, led by P. Sweeney (2G). Grimsby's starters account for 4 goals and 2 assists, spearheaded by E. Khouri (4G). Goals reflect clinical finishing and chance creation, while assists highlight the ability to unlock defences through through-balls, crosses, and set pieces.
Defensive Solidity
Exeter City deploy 4 defenders rated 6.95 on average, against Grimsby's 3-man backline averaging —. Higher defensive ratings suggest better positional awareness, fewer individual errors, and a greater likelihood of keeping clean sheets. The rating accounts for tackles won, interceptions, aerial duels, and blocks throughout the season.
Midfield Control
Exeter City field 5 midfielders averaging —, versus Grimsby's 5 rated 6.82. Midfield ratings reflect passing accuracy, interceptions, key passes, and overall control of possession — the team that dominates midfield typically dictates the tempo and territory of the match.
Forward Threat
Exeter City start 1 forward(s) averaging —, compared to 2 for Grimsby averaging —. Forward ratings capture shot accuracy, movement off the ball, dribbling success, and involvement in build-up play — they indicate who carries the greater goal threat on the day.
Passing & Build-Up
Passing accuracy averages 77% for Exeter City and 73% for Grimsby. Higher passing accuracy generally indicates a possession-based style with patient build-up through the thirds, while lower figures may suggest a more direct, counter-attacking approach with long balls and quick transitions.
Discipline
Exeter City's starters have collected 7 yellow cards this season, compared to 4 for Grimsby. Yellow cards reflect how aggressively a team presses and tackles — a high count may indicate a physical, high-pressing style but also risks suspensions and late free-kicks in dangerous areas.
Age & Experience
The average age of Exeter City's starting XI is 31.0 (youngest: P. Sweeney (31), oldest: P. Sweeney (31)), while Grimsby average 22.0 (youngest: E. Khouri (22), oldest: E. Khouri (22)). Younger squads typically offer pace, energy, and pressing intensity, while experienced lineups bring composure, game management, and the ability to handle high-pressure moments.
Squad Depth
Exeter City's starters average 38 league appearances each, versus 32 for Grimsby. High appearance counts indicate an established, well-drilled unit that the manager trusts week in and week out. Lower figures may suggest rotation, injuries, or emerging players still earning their place in the team.
Substitutes
Coach: M. Taylor
Substitutes
Coach: P. Hurst
Recent Form
In their last 6 matches, Exeter City have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats. Grimsby show 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from their last 6 outings.
Exeter City
Grimsby
API data: 16 Apr 2026