What Is a Forecast Bet? (Definition & Core Concept)
A forecast bet is a wager in which you predict which two runners will finish first and second in a race. It's one of the most popular multiple betting types in horse racing and greyhound racing, offering significantly higher odds than a simple win bet in exchange for greater difficulty in prediction.
Unlike a win bet where you only need to pick the winner, a forecast requires you to identify both the first and second finishers. This added complexity creates the potential for substantial returns, which is why forecast betting has become a staple of UK racing culture.
Where Did Forecast Betting Originate?
Forecast betting emerged from the UK horse racing tradition in the mid-20th century as bookmakers sought to offer bettors more varied and exciting wagering options. Before forecasts became standardized, punters could only place straightforward win or place bets. The introduction of the forecast bet revolutionized racing wagering by allowing bettors to leverage their knowledge of multiple runners in a race.
The Tote (Totalisator), the UK's official pool betting operator, played a crucial role in popularizing forecast betting through their exacta pool system. This competitive landscape led bookmakers to develop their own forecast calculation methods, which eventually became standardized as the Computer Straight Forecast (CSF) formula—a proprietary calculation used by nearly all UK bookmakers today.
Why Do Bettors Choose Forecast Bets?
Forecast bets appeal to both casual and experienced bettors for several compelling reasons:
Higher Odds and Potential Returns: A forecast bet combines the odds of two selections, creating much higher odds than either horse would offer individually. For example, a horse at 5/2 combined with another at 9/2 produces forecast odds of 13.85/1—far superior to any single bet.
Skill and Analysis Opportunity: Forecasts reward deeper race analysis. Rather than simply identifying the strongest runner, you must assess form, pace, track conditions, and running styles to predict which two horses will occupy the podium positions.
Excitement and Entertainment: The challenge of landing a forecast creates genuine excitement. The combination of strategy, calculation, and the chase for bigger returns keeps bettors engaged throughout the race.
Flexibility in Bet Structure: With straight, reverse, and combination options available, bettors can tailor their forecast bets to match their confidence levels and bankroll.
How Does a Forecast Bet Work? (Mechanics & Rules)
Minimum Runner Requirements
Forecast bets can only be placed on races with a minimum of three runners. This rule exists because you need at least three potential finishers to create meaningful odds for the first and second positions.
If a race has fewer than three runners at the off, any forecast bets placed on that race are voided, and your stakes are returned. Similarly, if all but one runner is withdrawn before the race, leaving only a single competitor, no forecast dividend will be declared. In this scenario, if you backed the winning horse in your forecast, your bet settles as a winning single at the starting price rather than as a forecast.
Stake and Payout Mechanics
One key advantage of forecast betting is that you only pay a single stake, not multiple stakes. This differs from some other multiple bets where your stake multiplies based on the number of combinations.
When you place a straight forecast, you're essentially making one bet at combined odds. The bookmaker calculates the forecast odds based on the individual odds of your two selections using their proprietary formula. Your potential return is calculated as:
Stake × Forecast Odds = Total Return
For example, if you place a £10 straight forecast at 13.85/1, your return would be £138.50 (including your original stake), for a profit of £128.50.
What Happens with Non-Runners?
Non-runners (horses withdrawn before the race) can significantly impact your forecast bet. The settlement rules vary slightly depending on how many of your selections are affected:
One of your two selections is withdrawn: Your bet is typically settled as a winning single using the starting price of your remaining selection, if it wins the race. If your remaining selection doesn't win, the bet is lost.
Both of your selections are withdrawn: Your bet is voided entirely, and your stake is returned.
Non-runners in the wider field: These don't directly affect your forecast settlement, but they do change the race dynamics and odds calculations.
Different bookmakers may apply slightly different rules in edge cases, so it's worth checking the specific terms of your chosen betting operator before placing large forecast bets.
What Are the Main Types of Forecast Bets? (The Three Core Variants)
| Forecast Type | Selections | Order Matters | Stake | Complexity | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Straight Forecast | 2 | Yes (exact order) | Single | Low | High confidence in order |
| Reverse Forecast | 2 | No (any order) | Double | Medium | Confident in 2 horses, unsure of order |
| Combination Forecast | 3+ | No (any order) | Multiple | High | Confident in multiple runners |
Straight Forecast Explained
A straight forecast is the simplest form of forecast betting. You select two runners and predict the exact order in which they will finish—first and second, in that specific sequence.
If you back Horse A to finish first and Horse B to finish second, you win only if that exact result occurs. If Horse B finishes first and Horse A finishes second, your bet loses, even though you picked the right two horses.
Example: At Newmarket, you fancy a 5/2 shot to win and a 9/2 shot to finish second. The combined forecast odds are 13.85/1. If you stake £5, your return would be £69.25 (£5 × 13.85/1), for a profit of £64.25.
The straight forecast offers the highest odds of the three main forecast types because you're making the most specific prediction. This makes it attractive to confident bettors who believe they've identified the likely finishing order.
Reverse Forecast Explained
A reverse forecast covers both possible finishing orders for two selections. You pick two horses, and you win if they finish first and second in either order.
Essentially, a reverse forecast is like placing two straight forecasts simultaneously:
- One bet on Horse A first, Horse B second
- One bet on Horse B first, Horse A second
Because you're covering both combinations, your stake is doubled. If you place a £5 reverse forecast, you're actually staking £10 total (£5 for each combination).
Example: Using the same horses (5/2 and 9/2), a reverse forecast would return:
- £69.25 if the 5/2 shot wins and the 9/2 shot finishes second
- £78.50 if the 9/2 shot wins and the 5/2 shot finishes second
If you stake £5 on the reverse, you'll receive one of these payouts (minus your £5 stake for the losing combination).
| Aspect | Straight Forecast | Reverse Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Selections | 2 horses | 2 horses |
| Order Required | Exact (1st then 2nd) | Any order |
| Stake | Single (e.g., £5) | Double (e.g., £10 for £5 per combination) |
| Odds | Higher (e.g., 13.85/1) | Lower (e.g., 6.92/1 per combination) |
| When to Use | Confident in finishing order | Confident in two horses, unsure of order |
| Risk Level | Higher | Lower |
The reverse forecast is ideal when you're confident that two specific horses will dominate a race but uncertain about which will finish ahead.
Combination Forecast Explained
A combination forecast allows you to select three or more runners and win if any two of them finish in the top two positions, in any order.
This flexibility comes at a cost: your stake multiplies based on the number of combinations possible. With three selections, there are six possible two-horse combinations. With four selections, there are twelve combinations.
How Combination Forecasts Work:
If you select three horses (A, B, and C), your combination forecast covers:
- A first, B second
- A first, C second
- B first, A second
- B first, C second
- C first, A second
- C first, B second
If you stake £1 per combination, your total stake is £6. You win if any of these six outcomes occurs.
| Number of Selections | Number of Combinations | £1 Stake Cost | £5 Stake Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 selections | 6 combinations | £6 | £30 |
| 4 selections | 12 combinations | £12 | £60 |
| 5 selections | 20 combinations | £20 | £100 |
| 6 selections (maximum) | 30 combinations | £30 | £150 |
Combination forecasts are popular among bettors who've identified several strong runners in a race and want to maximize their chances of a return without committing to a specific finishing order.
What's the Difference Between Forecast and Other Betting Types? (Comparative Analysis)
Forecast vs Tricast
The primary difference between a forecast and a tricast is the number of finishing positions you're predicting.
A forecast requires you to pick the first and second finishers. A tricast requires you to pick the first, second, and third finishers in a single race.
Because a tricast requires prediction of three positions instead of two, the odds are significantly higher, but the difficulty increases substantially. A straight tricast (predicting exact order) is considerably harder to land than a straight forecast.
Odds Comparison Example:
- Straight forecast on three horses: approximately 50/1 to 100/1
- Straight tricast on the same three horses: approximately 300/1 to 500/1
Both bets offer similar structural options: straight, reverse, and combination variants. However, tricasts are less frequently available and have higher minimum stakes at many bookmakers.
Forecast vs Exacta
The terms forecast and exacta are often used interchangeably, but there's an important distinction in how they're offered and paid out.
An exacta is a Tote pool bet—your stake is combined with all other bettors' stakes in a pool, and the total prize fund is divided among winners proportionally. An exacta is always equivalent to a straight forecast in terms of prediction (1st and 2nd in exact order).
A Computer Straight Forecast (CSF) is a bookmaker's fixed-odds bet. The bookmaker calculates your odds using their proprietary formula and offers fixed odds, regardless of how much other bettors have wagered.
Which Offers Better Value?
This depends on the race and pool size. For small stakes, the exacta often pays better because the Tote takes a smaller commission than bookmakers' overround. However, for larger stakes, the exacta pool may not have sufficient funds to cover the full payout, resulting in a reduced return. In these cases, a bookmaker's CSF may be more attractive.
| Aspect | Exacta (Tote Pool) | Computer Straight Forecast (Bookmaker) |
|---|---|---|
| Operator | Tote (official pool) | Bookmakers (fixed odds) |
| Odds Type | Variable (pool-dependent) | Fixed (bookmaker-set) |
| Payout | Proportional to stake in pool | Fixed based on odds |
| Best For | Small stakes | Large stakes |
| Commission | Lower (Tote takes cut) | Higher (bookmaker overround) |
| Availability | Limited to Tote races | Available at all bookmakers |
How Do You Calculate Forecast Odds and Returns? (The Math Behind the Bet)
Understanding Forecast Odds
Forecast odds are calculated by combining the odds of your two selected horses using a mathematical formula. The exact formula is proprietary to each bookmaker, but the general principle is consistent.
Basic Formula Concept:
For a straight forecast, the odds are derived from the individual odds of each selection. If you back a horse at 5/2 and another at 9/2, the calculation roughly follows this logic:
- Convert fractional odds to decimal: 5/2 = 3.5, and 9/2 = 5.5
- Multiply the decimal odds: 3.5 × 5.5 = 19.25
- Subtract 1 for the stake: 19.25 - 1 = 18.25 (or approximately 13.85/1 in fractional odds)
The exact Computer Straight Forecast formula used by UK bookmakers is more complex and accounts for various factors, but this gives you the general principle.
Why Odds Vary by Bookmaker:
Different bookmakers may offer slightly different forecast odds due to their individual overround (the built-in profit margin). This is why shopping around for the best forecast odds can make a meaningful difference to your long-term returns.
Straight Forecast Return Calculation
The straight forecast return is the simplest to calculate:
Return = Stake × Forecast Odds
Example Calculations:
£1 Stake at 13.85/1:
- Return = £1 × 13.85 = £13.85
- Profit = £13.85 - £1 = £12.85
£5 Stake at 25/1:
- Return = £5 × 25 = £125
- Profit = £125 - £5 = £120
£10 Stake at 8.5/1:
- Return = £10 × 8.5 = £85
- Profit = £85 - £10 = £75
Reverse Forecast Return Calculation
Reverse forecasts are more complex because you're covering two combinations, each with different odds.
When you place a reverse forecast, each combination (A-B and B-A) has its own set of odds. If one combination wins, you receive the return for that combination. You lose the stake on the other combination.
Example:
Stake: £5 per combination (£10 total)
- Horse A at 5/2, Horse B at 9/2
- A first, B second: 13.85/1
- B first, A second: 15.97/1
If A finishes first and B second:
- Return = £5 × 13.85 = £69.25
- You lose £5 on the B-A combination
- Net profit = £69.25 - £5 = £64.25
If B finishes first and A second:
- Return = £5 × 15.97 = £79.85
- You lose £5 on the A-B combination
- Net profit = £79.85 - £5 = £74.85
Combination Forecast Cost and Returns
Combination forecasts scale in cost based on the number of combinations. Your total stake is:
Total Stake = Stake per Combination × Number of Combinations
If you place a combination forecast with three selections at £1 per combination, your total stake is £6 (for six combinations). If any two of your three selections finish in the top two in any order, you win.
Your return depends on which specific combination wins, as each has different odds. If multiple combinations win (which can happen if your three selections occupy the top two spots), you receive the payout for the highest-odds combination.
Example:
Selections: Horse A (5/2), Horse B (9/2), Horse C (7/1) Stake: £1 per combination (£6 total)
If A finishes first and B finishes second, you win the A-B combination at 13.85/1:
- Return = £1 × 13.85 = £13.85
- Profit = £13.85 - £6 = £7.85
How Do You Place a Forecast Bet? (Practical Guide)
Step-by-Step Placement Guide
Placing a forecast bet is straightforward:
1. Choose Your Race: Select the race you want to bet on. Forecasts are available on most flat racing, jump racing, and greyhound racing events.
2. Select Your Horses: Click or tap on the two (or more) horses you want to back.
3. Specify the Bet Type: Choose whether you want a straight forecast, reverse forecast, or combination forecast.
4. Confirm the Order (if applicable): For straight forecasts, confirm the order in which you expect the horses to finish. Use the up/down arrows on your betting slip to arrange them.
5. Enter Your Stake: Input the amount you want to stake. For reverse and combination forecasts, this is the stake per combination.
6. Review and Confirm: Check the forecast odds and potential returns on your betting slip, then confirm the bet.
7. Place the Bet: Click "Place Bet" and your forecast wager is confirmed.
Where to Place Forecast Bets
Forecast bets are available at virtually all major UK bookmakers, both online and in betting shops. Popular options include:
- Online bookmakers (via desktop or mobile app)
- In-shop betting terminals
- Telephone betting services
Most bookmakers offer forecast bets on all races with three or more runners, though availability can vary for minor meetings or small-field races.
What Are Common Misconceptions About Forecast Betting? (Myth-Busting)
Misconception 1: "Forecasts Are Too Risky"
While forecasts do require correct prediction of two positions, they're not necessarily riskier than win bets when approached strategically. A reverse forecast, for example, covers both possible orders, reducing risk considerably compared to a straight forecast.
Additionally, combination forecasts allow you to spread your risk across multiple runners, increasing your chances of a return without dramatically increasing your stake.
Misconception 2: "Forecasts Are Only for Experts"
Forecast betting is accessible to all experience levels. Straight forecasts on two horses with strong form are perfectly suitable for beginners. As your confidence grows, you can explore reverse and combination variants.
Many casual bettors successfully land forecasts by simply backing the two horses they expect to dominate a race, without requiring advanced analytical skills.
Misconception 3: "Combination Forecasts Always Cost Too Much"
While combination forecasts do multiply in cost as you add selections, you control the stake per combination. A three-selection combination forecast at £0.50 per combination costs only £3 total—very affordable for most bettors.
The key is matching your stake to your bankroll and confidence level.
What Are Some Forecast Betting Strategy Tips? (Practical Advice)
Selecting Strong Forecast Candidates
Analyze Recent Form: Focus on horses that have run well in recent races. A horse in a strong run of form is more likely to finish in the top two than one out of form.
Consider Class Levels: A horse dropping in class often performs better. Conversely, a horse stepping up significantly in class may struggle to finish in the top two.
Assess Track Conditions: Some horses excel on soft ground, others on firm. Match your selections to the going forecast for the day.
Evaluate Pace and Running Style: In races where pace is important, identify which horses will get a favourable run. A horse suited to the pace often finishes closer.
When to Use Straight vs Reverse Forecasts
Use Straight Forecasts When:
- You're highly confident in the finishing order
- You've identified a clear winner and a likely runner-up
- The odds justify the additional risk
Use Reverse Forecasts When:
- You're confident two horses will dominate but unsure of the order
- The odds are similar for both combinations
- You want to reduce risk while maintaining exposure to two strong runners
Combination Forecast Strategy
Expand to Three Selections When:
- You've identified three strong runners with similar form
- The race is competitive with no clear-cut favourite
- You want to maximize your chances of a return
Stick to Straight Forecasts When:
- The race has a standout favourite and one clear second choice
- You're confident in the finishing order
- Your bankroll is limited
Frequently Asked Questions About Forecast Betting
Can you place a forecast bet on greyhound racing?
Yes, forecast bets are available on greyhound racing using the same rules and bet types as horse racing. Greyhound forecasts operate identically—you predict the first and second finishers.
What's the maximum number of selections in a combination forecast?
The maximum is six selections, which creates 30 possible combinations (and a stake of £30 for £1 per combination). Most bettors find three or four selections manageable.
Do forecast bets work on all race types?
Forecasts are available on flat racing, jump racing, and greyhound racing. They're most common on flat racing due to the larger fields and more predictable finishing orders.
Can you cash out a forecast bet early?
Some bookmakers offer cash-out functionality for forecast bets, but this varies. Check with your betting operator for their specific policies.
What happens if one of your forecast selections is scratched?
If one horse is withdrawn, your bet is typically settled as a winning single using the starting price of your remaining selection (if it wins). If both are withdrawn, your bet is voided and your stake returned.
Is there a minimum or maximum stake for forecast bets?
Minimum stakes typically range from £0.10 to £1, depending on the bookmaker. Maximum stakes can be £1,000 or higher, though limits vary by bookmaker and race.
How are forecast odds different from win odds?
Forecast odds are calculated by combining the odds of two selections and are significantly higher than either horse's win odds. This reflects the increased difficulty of predicting two finishing positions.
Can you place a forecast bet after the race has started?
No, forecast bets must be placed before the race starts. Once the race has begun, betting is suspended.