12 March 2023 at 13:30
Betting Odds & Historical Data
Opening pre-match odds recorded for this fixture at the time it was played. These are historical figures for analytical reference only and do not reflect any current market.
Historical data only — not for betting
This data is sourced from football-data.co.uk and covers historical match results and pre-match odds. These figures do not represent current or live odds and cannot be used for placing bets. Betting is not possible on this website. Provided for analytical and research purposes only.
Head-to-Head Record
Ajax dominatesHistorical results between these two teams — showing who has dominated this fixture and whether the current odds reflect that pattern.
Goals in This Fixture
How many goals these two teams typically produce when they meet, based on their historical encounters.
3.9
Average goals per game
60%
Games with 3+ goals
50%
Both teams scored
Potential Betting Value Detected
Historical win rate (25%) differs significantly from the market-implied probability (13%) — the odds may underestimate Heerenveen.
Market Summary
Margin: 5.0%Implied win probabilities calculated from pre-match odds across multiple sources. A higher percentage means the market considered that outcome more likely. Compare these against your own assessment to spot potential value.
Implied Probability
Odds Range
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min | 6.50 | 4.50 | 1.42 |
| Max | 7.24 | 5.09 | 1.44 |
Market Consensus
Professional markets (sharp bookmakers) reflect sharp money and are harder to beat. Public markets are softer. When the two disagree significantly (highlighted in amber), it may indicate a mispriced line worth investigating.
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Professional market | 13.4% | 19.0% | 67.6% |
| Public market | 14.7% | 19.1% | 66.2% |
| Δ | 1.3% | — | 1.4% |
Heerenveen vs Ajax — margin-removed probabilities
Result vs. Market
Result matched market prediction
Match Statistics
Actual in-game statistics recorded for this match. Shots on target is a strong indicator of attacking pressure and correlates well with expected goals.
Head-to-Head History
Historical results between these two teams. Bold odds show which outcome was backed by the market — compare against the actual result to assess predictability of this fixture over time.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Avg. odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2525/26 | Ajax | 1–1 | Heerenveen | 1.57/4.50/5.00 |
| 19/01/2524/25 | Heerenveen | 0–2 | Ajax | 5.21/4.12/1.61 |
| 11/08/2424/25 | Ajax | 1–0 | Heerenveen | 1.45/4.76/6.08 |
| 11/02/2423/24 | Heerenveen | 3–2 | Ajax | 3.97/4.47/1.72 |
| 05/11/2323/24 | Ajax | 4–1 | Heerenveen | 1.47/4.98/5.71 |
| 12/03/2322/23 | Heerenveen | 2–4 | Ajax | 6.91/4.86/1.43 |
| 10/09/2222/23 | Ajax | 5–0 | Heerenveen | 1.19/7.46/12.91 |
| 11/05/2221/22 | Ajax | 5–0 | Heerenveen | 1.14/8.53/16.50 |
| 16/10/2121/22 | Heerenveen | 0–2 | Ajax | 10.74/5.99/1.24 |
| 18/10/2020/21 | Ajax | 5–1 | Heerenveen | 1.19/7.31/13.68 |
Home Record / Away Record
Aggregated season statistics from all available historical data. Use these to assess each team's overall form, scoring frequency, and tendency for high-scoring matches.
Home Record: Heerenveen
Away Record: Ajax
Data: football-data.co.uk
Match Summary
Ajax defeated Heerenveen 4:2. The match was played in Eredivisie 2022. Goals were scored by M. Kudus 10′, E. Álvarez 16′, S. Bergwijn 19′, P. van Amersfoort 42′, K. Taylor 52′, S. van Hooijdonk 79′. 4 yellow cards were shown. Heerenveen had 43% possession while Ajax held 57%. Heerenveen had 6 shots (4 on target) compared to 13 (6 on target) for Ajax. Heerenveen made 5 substitutions, Ajax made 1. VAR was involved: Penalty cancelled (Devyne Rensch 33′), Penalty cancelled (Osame Sahraoui 55′).
Match Events
Key match events between Heerenveen and Ajax — 6 goals and 4 cards recorded during the match.
assist: M. Kudus
assist: D. Tadić
assist: T. Haye
assist: O. Sahraoui
Match Statistics
Heerenveen had 43% possession against Ajax's 57%. Heerenveen registered 6 shots (4 on target) while Ajax managed 13 (6 on target). Corner kicks: 5–8. Fouls committed: 13–11.
Lineups
Heerenveen lined up in a 4-3-3 formation under K. van Wonderen, while Ajax deployed a 4-3-3 under J. Heitinga.
Squad Ratings
The overall squad rating for Heerenveen is 6.30, compared to 6.85 for Ajax. This metric is derived from each player's average match rating across all league appearances this season — anything above 7.00 is considered strong, while below 6.50 signals inconsistency. Heerenveen's highest-rated starter is P. Bochniewicz (6.30), while Ajax's best-rated player is S. Berghuis (7.29).
Attacking Output
The starting XI of Heerenveen have contributed 0 goals and 0 assists this season, led by —. Ajax's starters account for 7 goals and 6 assists, spearheaded by S. Berghuis (4G). Goals reflect clinical finishing and chance creation, while assists highlight the ability to unlock defences through through-balls, crosses, and set pieces.
Defensive Solidity
Heerenveen deploy 4 defenders rated 6.30 on average, against Ajax's 4-man backline averaging 6.63. Higher defensive ratings suggest better positional awareness, fewer individual errors, and a greater likelihood of keeping clean sheets. The rating accounts for tackles won, interceptions, aerial duels, and blocks throughout the season.
Midfield Control
Heerenveen field 3 midfielders averaging —, versus Ajax's 3 rated 7.08. Midfield ratings reflect passing accuracy, interceptions, key passes, and overall control of possession — the team that dominates midfield typically dictates the tempo and territory of the match.
Forward Threat
Heerenveen start 3 forward(s) averaging —, compared to 3 for Ajax averaging —. Forward ratings capture shot accuracy, movement off the ball, dribbling success, and involvement in build-up play — they indicate who carries the greater goal threat on the day.
Passing & Build-Up
Passing accuracy averages —% for Heerenveen and 86% for Ajax. Higher passing accuracy generally indicates a possession-based style with patient build-up through the thirds, while lower figures may suggest a more direct, counter-attacking approach with long balls and quick transitions.
Discipline
Heerenveen's starters have collected 0 yellow cards this season, compared to 8 for Ajax. Yellow cards reflect how aggressively a team presses and tackles — a high count may indicate a physical, high-pressing style but also risks suspensions and late free-kicks in dangerous areas.
Age & Experience
The average age of Heerenveen's starting XI is 29.0 (youngest: P. Bochniewicz (29), oldest: P. Bochniewicz (29)), while Ajax average 26.3 (youngest: D. Rensch (22), oldest: S. Berghuis (34)). Younger squads typically offer pace, energy, and pressing intensity, while experienced lineups bring composure, game management, and the ability to handle high-pressure moments.
Squad Depth
Heerenveen's starters average 1 league appearances each, versus 13 for Ajax. High appearance counts indicate an established, well-drilled unit that the manager trusts week in and week out. Lower figures may suggest rotation, injuries, or emerging players still earning their place in the team.
Substitutes
Coach: K. van Wonderen
Substitutes
Coach: J. Heitinga
Recent Form
In their last 6 matches, Heerenveen have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats. Ajax show 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from their last 6 outings.
Heerenveen
Ajax
Heerenveen vs Ajax Head to Head Results
Heerenveen and Ajax have met 32 times — Heerenveen won 1, Ajax won 26, with 5 draws. Their rivalry dates back to 2010. Ajax leads the head-to-head with 26 victories from 32 meetings. A combined 132 goals have been scored across these fixtures, averaging 4.13 per match (29 for the home side, 103 for the visitors). Both teams scored in 20 matches (63%). Over 2.5 goals landed in 25 games (78%), making it a fixture that tends to produce goals. Ajax are currently unbeaten in the last 3 meetings. The highest-scoring encounter finished 4–4 in 2019.
1
Heerenveen
5
Drawn
26
Ajax
Recent Meetings (32)
API data: 15 Mar 2026